简介
This book provides a hands-on introduction to the construction and application of models to studies of vertebrate distribution, abundance, and habitat. The book is aimed at field biologists, conservation planners, and advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students who are involved with planning and analyzing conservation studies, and applying the results to conservation decisions. The book also acts as a bridge to more advanced and mathematically challenging coverage in the wider literature.
Part I provides a basic background in population and community modeling. It introduces statistical models, and familiarizes the reader with important concepts in the design of monitoring and research programs. These programs provide the essential data that guide conservation decision making. Part II covers the principal methods used to estimate abundance, occupancy, demographic parameters, and community parameters, including occupancy sampling, sample counts, distance sampling, and capture-mark-recapture (for both closed and open populations). Emphasis is placed on practical aspects of designing and implementing field studies, and the proper analysis of data. Part III introduces structured decision making and adaptive management, in which predictive models are used to inform conservation decision makers on appropriate decisions in the face of uncertainty—with the goal of reducing uncertainty through monitoring and research. A detailed case study is used to illustrate each of these themes.
Numerous worked examples and accompanying electronic material (on a website and accompanying CD) provide the details of model construction and application, and data analysis.
目录
Preface p. vii
Acknowledgements p. ix
Companion website and CD-ROM p. x
Introduction: the role of science in conservation p. 1
Basic concepts in scientific investigations for conservation p. 7
Using models in conservation biology p. 9
Models of population dynamics p. 15
Applying population models to conservation p. 32
Basics of study design and analysis p. 47
Conservation studies and monitoring programs p. 71
General principles of estimation p. 73
Occupancy (presence-Absence) analysis p. 81
Sample counts for abundance estimation p. 101
Distance sampling for estimating density and abundance p. 115
Capture-mark-recapture studies for estimating abundance and density p. 135
Estimation of survival from radiotelemetry, nesting success studies, and age distributions p. 160
Mack-recapture for estimating survival, recruitment, abundance, and movement rates p. 189
Analysis of habitat p. 219
Estimation of species richness and other community parameters p. 230
Integrating modeling monitoring for conservation p. 251
Elements of conservation decision making p. 253
Accounting for uncertainty in conservation decisions p. 265
Learning and adaptive management p. 274
Case study: decision modeling and adaptive management for declining grassland birds in the southeastern USA p. 289
Summary and recommendations p. 303
Literature cited p. 307
Glossary p. 314
Statistical and modeling programs available on the worldwide web p. 324
Other internet resources p. 326
Modeling and statistical notation p. 328
Key to abundance and parameter estimation p. 331
Index p. 337
Acknowledgements p. ix
Companion website and CD-ROM p. x
Introduction: the role of science in conservation p. 1
Basic concepts in scientific investigations for conservation p. 7
Using models in conservation biology p. 9
Models of population dynamics p. 15
Applying population models to conservation p. 32
Basics of study design and analysis p. 47
Conservation studies and monitoring programs p. 71
General principles of estimation p. 73
Occupancy (presence-Absence) analysis p. 81
Sample counts for abundance estimation p. 101
Distance sampling for estimating density and abundance p. 115
Capture-mark-recapture studies for estimating abundance and density p. 135
Estimation of survival from radiotelemetry, nesting success studies, and age distributions p. 160
Mack-recapture for estimating survival, recruitment, abundance, and movement rates p. 189
Analysis of habitat p. 219
Estimation of species richness and other community parameters p. 230
Integrating modeling monitoring for conservation p. 251
Elements of conservation decision making p. 253
Accounting for uncertainty in conservation decisions p. 265
Learning and adaptive management p. 274
Case study: decision modeling and adaptive management for declining grassland birds in the southeastern USA p. 289
Summary and recommendations p. 303
Literature cited p. 307
Glossary p. 314
Statistical and modeling programs available on the worldwide web p. 324
Other internet resources p. 326
Modeling and statistical notation p. 328
Key to abundance and parameter estimation p. 331
Index p. 337
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