简介
Presents basic statistical techniques that are useful for preparing individual business forecasts and long-range plans, with practical cases and examples of the use of Minitab and Excel. Emphasis is on the application of techniques by management for decision making. Early chapters present background material, review basic statistical concepts, and examine data collection methods, data patterns, and choosing a forecasting technique. Later chapters discuss averaging and smoothing techniques, causal forecasting techniques, and techniques involving time series analysis. A concluding chapter discusses technological and judgmental forecasting techniques, and how to manage and monitor the forecasting process. Includes chapter glossaries, key formulas, problems, and cases with questions. This sixth edition features demonstrations of how to use Minitab in a forecasting situation and how to use Excel to solve a forecasting problem at the end of each chapter. A new data set on the Internet is available, and there are new chapter cases and exercises. Assumes introductory courses in statistics and computers. Annotation c. by Book News, Inc., Portland, Or.
目录
1 Introduction to Forecasting
2 A Review of Basic Statistical Concepts
3 Exploring Data Patterns and Choosing a Forecasting Technique
4 Moving Averages and Smoothing Methods
5 Time Series and Their Components
6 Simple Linear Regression
7 Multiple Regression Analysis
8 Regression with Time Series Data
9 The Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) Methodology
10 Judgmental Forecasting and Forecast Adjustments
11 Managing the Forecasting Process
Appendix A Derivations
Appendix B Data for Case Study 7.1
Appendix C Tables
Appendix D Data Sets and Databases
Index
2 A Review of Basic Statistical Concepts
3 Exploring Data Patterns and Choosing a Forecasting Technique
4 Moving Averages and Smoothing Methods
5 Time Series and Their Components
6 Simple Linear Regression
7 Multiple Regression Analysis
8 Regression with Time Series Data
9 The Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) Methodology
10 Judgmental Forecasting and Forecast Adjustments
11 Managing the Forecasting Process
Appendix A Derivations
Appendix B Data for Case Study 7.1
Appendix C Tables
Appendix D Data Sets and Databases
Index
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