简介
The author seeks to assist planners and decisionmakers in thinking about and preparing for possible future contingencies concerning North Korea. He does not dwell on war or conflict scenarios involving North Korea because military planners have already focused considerable effort and attention on these. It is entirely possible that the fate of the country as a political, territorial, and juridical entity is intimately bound up with the fate of the Kim Jong Il regime, but one should not assume this to be so. In other words, the collapse of the Kim regime may not lead to the collapse of North Korea as a state. Moreover, one should not assume that even if the regime collapse is followed by state collapse that these events would inexorably lead to Korean unification.
目录
Research focus and terms of reference
The future of what? State versus regime, failure versus collapse
Challenges
Degrees of dictatorship and criteria of collapse
A failing/eroding totalitarian regime
Future trajectories and scenarios
None of the above: toward a hybrid scenario
Conclusions and implications
Key indicators of regime change.
The future of what? State versus regime, failure versus collapse
Challenges
Degrees of dictatorship and criteria of collapse
A failing/eroding totalitarian regime
Future trajectories and scenarios
None of the above: toward a hybrid scenario
Conclusions and implications
Key indicators of regime change.
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