简介
Advance praise for... The only professional guide that tackles the impermanence and built-in obsolescence of trading systems Campaign Trading "John Sweeney will help you overcome the tyranny of one-note trading systems by explaining the secrets of maximum adverse excursion and maximum favorable excursion. Sweeney shows you when to hold' em, and when to fold' em, so you can trade in all types of markets. Now you can trade with the best of them." - Tushar S. Chande, Ph.D. Author, The New Technical Trader "This book is for the serious trader who wants to gain an edge. John Sweeney's Campaign Trading teaches you his concept of excursion analysis, a method that should be thoroughly understood by every trader who wants to win." - Thom Hartle Editor, Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine "Sweeney grabs the trading bull by the horns and addresses one of the most neglected aspects of technical analysis-how to best exit a trade. He demonstrates his breadth of knowledge and depth of research by describing how to optimize profits and avoid catastrophic losses in all market conditions." - John F. Ehlers Author, MESA and Trading Market Cycles Success in the trading arena requires the ability to change strategies on a regular basis in order to accommodate moves in the market and shifts in investment preferences. And while having a solid trading system in place is important for attaining favorable and profitable results, it is equally important to have an overall approach that is flexible. After all, any given system is only effective for a certain period of time, under a specific set of circumstances. Campaign Trading gives you the tools you need to develop a strong trading style that can be adjusted, refined, and retuned, when necessary, to meet the demands of current market behavior. Author John Sweeney, Technical Editor of the highly regarded Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine, has written a one-of-a-kind book that focuses on the "big picture." He maps out a game plan with which you can win the trading war, not just the isolated battles. Covering essential topics such as the basics and anomalies of campaigning, reversing bad trades, reversing out of ranges, and using options to shift the odds, this invaluable reference shows you how to build a sound base for campaigning. You will learn what measurement techniques to use, how to test trading rules for effectiveness, and how to pick the types of trades you will use in future campaigns. Campaign Trading uses case examples to illustrate how to create a profitable trading campaign that takes advantage of a specific trading instrument under a variety of circumstances. Once this campaign is established, you'll learn how to redevelop and adapt it to a new and different set of market conditions, thereby avoiding the built-in obsolescence typically found in systems that remain static. With Campaign Trading, you'll be appropriately armed to battle system impermanence and obsolescence. Whether you're a futures, options, stock, or bond trader, you'll find this must-have reference an indispensable source of help and guidance for keeping your system effective and on target-regardless of what the market is doing.
目录
Table Of Contents:
List of Illustrations xi
Introduction xvii
Stops xvii
More Markets, More Trades xviii
Preparing to Campaign xviii
Innovation xix
Ninety-Nine Percent Perspiration xx
Campaigning 1(26)
Introduction 1(2)
The Big Picture 3(2)
Basics 5(8)
Campaigning 13(2)
Classic Stages 15(7)
Anomalies 22(1)
Summary 23(4)
Trading the Trend 27(14)
Trends 27(11)
Trading Rules 38(1)
Exemplary Trading 39(1)
Summary 39(2)
Handling the Bad News 41(24)
How Bad Does It Get? 42(18)
The Argument from Experience 60(1)
Exemplary Trading 61(2)
Campaign Wrap-Up 63(2)
Testing 65(40)
Your Personal Experience 66(1)
Scientific Process 67(1)
In Sample or Out of Sample 68(1)
Details of Specific Contracts 69(2)
Details of New York Light Crude 71(32)
Summary 103(2)
Piling On: Exploiting the Trend 105(32)
Situation 105(1)
What's Cheap, What's Dear? 106(27)
Summary Profitability 133(2)
Summary 135(2)
Reversing Bad Trades 137(16)
The Idea 138(3)
Trading Rules 141(1)
Results 141(1)
Inspection 142(7)
Profitability of Reversing 149(1)
Summary 150(3)
Switching Modes: Trading Ranges 153(20)
Recognizing Ranging 154(6)
Range Trading MAE 160(3)
Results 163(8)
Summary 171(2)
Reversing Out of Ranges 173(12)
Reality 174(4)
Results 178(5)
Summary 183(2)
Minimum Favorable Excursion 185(20)
How Little Do Trades Go Our Way? 185(6)
Finding Winners and Minimizing Losers 191(2)
Gray Areas 193(4)
Favorable Excursion 197(5)
Campaigning 202(3)
Shifting the Odds: Using Options 205(18)
Rationale for Using Options 206(1)
Setting Up to Use Options 207(2)
Skipping Stops, Using Options 209(13)
Trading 222(1)
Conclusion to Campaign Trading 223(4)
Seeing the Market 224(1)
Campaign Tactics 224(1)
Old Hands 225(2)
Appendix: Trading Charts 227(16)
Index 243
List of Illustrations xi
Introduction xvii
Stops xvii
More Markets, More Trades xviii
Preparing to Campaign xviii
Innovation xix
Ninety-Nine Percent Perspiration xx
Campaigning 1(26)
Introduction 1(2)
The Big Picture 3(2)
Basics 5(8)
Campaigning 13(2)
Classic Stages 15(7)
Anomalies 22(1)
Summary 23(4)
Trading the Trend 27(14)
Trends 27(11)
Trading Rules 38(1)
Exemplary Trading 39(1)
Summary 39(2)
Handling the Bad News 41(24)
How Bad Does It Get? 42(18)
The Argument from Experience 60(1)
Exemplary Trading 61(2)
Campaign Wrap-Up 63(2)
Testing 65(40)
Your Personal Experience 66(1)
Scientific Process 67(1)
In Sample or Out of Sample 68(1)
Details of Specific Contracts 69(2)
Details of New York Light Crude 71(32)
Summary 103(2)
Piling On: Exploiting the Trend 105(32)
Situation 105(1)
What's Cheap, What's Dear? 106(27)
Summary Profitability 133(2)
Summary 135(2)
Reversing Bad Trades 137(16)
The Idea 138(3)
Trading Rules 141(1)
Results 141(1)
Inspection 142(7)
Profitability of Reversing 149(1)
Summary 150(3)
Switching Modes: Trading Ranges 153(20)
Recognizing Ranging 154(6)
Range Trading MAE 160(3)
Results 163(8)
Summary 171(2)
Reversing Out of Ranges 173(12)
Reality 174(4)
Results 178(5)
Summary 183(2)
Minimum Favorable Excursion 185(20)
How Little Do Trades Go Our Way? 185(6)
Finding Winners and Minimizing Losers 191(2)
Gray Areas 193(4)
Favorable Excursion 197(5)
Campaigning 202(3)
Shifting the Odds: Using Options 205(18)
Rationale for Using Options 206(1)
Setting Up to Use Options 207(2)
Skipping Stops, Using Options 209(13)
Trading 222(1)
Conclusion to Campaign Trading 223(4)
Seeing the Market 224(1)
Campaign Tactics 224(1)
Old Hands 225(2)
Appendix: Trading Charts 227(16)
Index 243
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