简介
Timely advice for finding investment opportunities during a global economic crisis In Profiting from the World's Economic Crisis, author Bud Conrad predicts a rough road ahead for our economy and reveals nontraditional investments that can make big money in difficult times. The crisis we are now entering is not the typical business recession but a major deleveraging that will be the biggest shift since the Great Depression. The stagflation of the U.S. economy will present great challenges on a global scale. Profiting from the World's Economic Crisis deftly addresses what investors need to know about today's turbulent economy, and highlights investments and global opportunities such as gold, interest rates, currency, and commodities that are likely to be profitable in the coming years. Bud Conrad, MBA (San Francisco, CA), is the Chief Economist at Casey Research and has been a futures investor for 25 years, as well as a full-time investor for more than a decade.
目录
Contents 9
Acknowledgments 11
Introduction 13
Part One: ECONOMIC FORCES 21
Chapter 1: The Budget Deficit Drives the Growth of All Debt 23
The Budget Reflects the State of the Nation 26
Federal Budget Spending 28
Taxes and the Federal Budget 28
Federal Budget Borrowing 29
How Will the Deficits Be Funded? 32
History Puts the Credit Crisis in Perspective 34
Historical Projections Have Underestimated Deficits 35
The Components of Government Spending 37
How Government Debt Compares to Inflation in Other Countries 42
Conclusion 43
Chapter 2: The Trade Deficit and U.S. Dependency on Foreign Investments 47
The United States Is the Largest Debtor 48
The Connections between the Trade Deficit and the U.S. Economy 51
The Connection between Home Mortgages and the Trade Deficit 56
Implications of a Falling Trade Deficit 58
Trade Deficits and Government Budget Deficits 59
The Effects of the Trade Deficit 60
Trade Imbalances Hurt the Dollar Status and Set Up Foreign Investors 65
Connecting the Trade Deficit, Budget Deficit, and the Fed 68
Sources to Watch 70
Custody Accounts at the Federal Reserve 78
What Will Be the Effect of the Increasing Trade and Budget Deficits? 79
Conclusion 81
Chapter 3: The Big Costs of Health Care, Social Security, and the Military 83
Health Care and Social Security Costs 84
Social Security Will Drag Deficits Lower 88
Defense Spending Is Continuing to Grow 90
Conclusion 93
Part Two: FINANCIAL CRISIS RESPONSE 95
Chapter 4: The Federal Reserve Prints Our Money (Stop the Presses!) 97
What Is the Fed? A Private Profiteer or a Government Agency? 98
Who Benefits from the Fed? 101
How Is the Fed Affecting Our Investment Horizon? 102
The Fed Is Out of Control 103
How Did the Fed Pay for Its Big Expansion? 106
Money Creation at the Fed: Is There Any More to It Than Dropping Money from Helicopters? 110
How the Fed Really Creates Money 111
How Effective Is the Reserve Requirement at Controlling Money? 115
So Why Are We Seeing Deflation in Stocks and Houses Now? 118
Foreigners Are Partners in Our Credit Supply 119
The Government Is Supporting the Economy Rather Than the Dollar 120
Federal Reserve\u2019s New Inflation Policy 122
Who Will Buy All the Treasuries? 123
When Might Deflation Turn to Inflation? 125
Political Implications of Egregious Fed Spending 128
The Fed May Be Acting Beyond Its Intended Authority 130
Conclusion 132
Chapter 5: The Importance of Debt for Predicting Our Economy 135
Our Debt Has Grown Way Beyond What Our Economy Can Support 137
Our Money Is Debt Today 140
Debt and Money Have Grown Together 140
Credit Flows Predict Economic Crisis 141
Credit Expanding and Contracting Defines Our Financial Future 146
Economic Effects of Debt 150
Where Is the Inflation? 152
Managing the Overextended Debt Leads to Inflation 153
The Implications of the Bursting Debt Bubble 156
Conclusion 157
Chapter 6: The Big-Picture Model of Our Economy 159
Equilibrium Is an Illusion: The Underlying Structure of Financial Systems 160
The Overview Model 163
The Virtuous Cycle of Growth 163
The Vicious Cycle of Destruction 167
Seeing the Relationships in the Data 170
Conclusion 175
Part Three: RECESSION OR DEPRESSION? 177
Chapter 7: What Can the 1929 Great Depression Teach Us about Today\u2019s Crisis? 179
Comparing the Stock Market during the Depression with the Current Economy 180
Comparing Prices and the Money Supply during the Depression with the Current Economy 183
Comparing Industrial Output during the Depression with the Current Economy 187
Comparing the Value of Gold during the Depression with the Current Economy 188
Comparing Interest Rates during the Depression with the Current Economy 189
Comparing Public Debt during the Depression with the Current Economy 190
Comparing the Price of Oil during the Depression with the Current Economy 191
Comparing Corporate Bond Rates during the Depression with the Current Economy 191
Comparing Unemployment during the Depression with the Current Economy 193
Comparing the Producer Price Index (PPI) during the Depression with the Current Economy 194
Comparing Housing Growth during the Depression with the Current Economy 194
Comparing the Trade Balance during the Depression with the Current Economy 196
Comparing Excess Reserves at the Fed during the Depression with the Current Economy 196
Conclusion 197
Chapter 8: What the United States Can Learn from Japan\u2019s Lost Decade(s): 1989\u20132009 203
Japan\u2019s Lost Decades: How Japan\u2019s Economic Bubble Burst after 1989 204
Quantitative Easing Is What You Do after Cutting Rates to Zero 210
Comparing Quantitative Easing in Japan and the United States to 2009 217
Trade Deficit and Surplus Are Opposite Between the United States and Japan 220
Comparing the National Government Deficits of Japan and the United States 221
Lessons from the Japanese Experiment 222
Investment Implications in Japan 225
Chapter 9: What the United States Can Learn from German and Other European Hyperinflations, and from China Today 231
China\u2019s Currency and Economic Expansion Actions Today 237
Chinese Money and Credit Spike Upward 239
Other Countries\u2019 Inflation after Big Government Deficits 241
Currencies No Longer in Circulation 242
Looking at Other Financial Crises for Similar Characteristics to the United States 243
Review of What We Learned from the Currencies of the World 244
Conclusion 245
Part Four: INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES 247
Chapter 10: The Stock Market May Be Dead for Another Decade 249
A Stock Market Model 249
Long-Term Cycles 253
Dividend Yield Gives an Idea of Valuation 255
Looking at Stock Market Sectors Gives Clues about Which Sectors May Be Overvalued 256
Earnings by Sector Reveal the Drivers of Performance 258
Conclusion 259
Chapter 11: Energy in the 21st Century: The End of the Petroleum Age 261
Peak Oil 262
Discovery of New Oil Is Key, but It\u2019s Not Happening 266
Supply Is Constrained 269
Hubbert\u2019s Curve and the Timing of Peak Oil 270
Natural Gas 272
Coal and Uranium Will Be the Major Energy Sources of the Future 274
Putting the Scenario Together 275
Perspective from a Nobel Laureate 277
Forecasting Energy Prices 277
Conclusion 280
Chapter 12: Food, Grain Trading 281
Grains: Tight Supply Drove Prices Higher Worldwide 283
Pricing Model for Grains 283
Ethanol 288
Cattle and Hogs 289
Conclusion 291
Chapter 13: The Demise of the Dollar 293
U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates and Purchasing Power 294
What\u2019s Driving the Dollar? 297
Sacrificing the Dollar for the Economy 300
Was the Fed Intervening for the Dollar? Federal Reserve Swaps 301
Global Enthusiasm for the Dollar Wanes 306
Oil Countries Are Turning Inward 307
Is the Euro a Viable Alternative to the Dollar? 309
How Gold Stacks Up against the Dollar 310
How Stocks Compare to the Dollar 311
Where Could the Dollar Go? 311
Putting the Trends Together 313
Investment Recommendations: Advice for Traders 315
Conclusion 316
Chapter 14: Interest Rates: The Trade of the Decade 319
How the Growth of Public Debt Has Affected Interest Rates 324
Government Credit Expansion Is Huge 326
The Debt Trap 327
Health Care Is Bankrupting the United States 329
The U.S. Treasury Debt Is Short Term 330
Tax Receipts Are Falling 331
Other Central Banks, Money Expansion 331
The Fed Pushes Mortgage Rates Down by Buying Mortgage-Backed Securities 333
A Close-Up Look at Commodity Price Inflation and Rates 335
Interest Rates Rise as the Dollar Falls 338
International Interest Rates and Currencies 339
Interest Rates as Best Investment Opportunity 342
Conclusion 344
Chapter 15: Gold Is the Only Real Money 345
How the Price of Gold Reflects the Macroeconomic Forces 346
Gold Was Used by Central Banks to Back Their Currencies 349
How Gold Moves with Other Parts of the Economy 355
Gold Supply and Demand 356
Investment Demand Drives Price 359
Summarizing Some of the Gold Supply and Demand Forces 362
Gold Leasing and Forward Hedging 362
The Seasonality of Gold Demand Also Affects Prices 366
How to Invest in Gold 367
Valuing Gold Mines Based on Gold in the Ground 369
Futures Contracts 374
Investing in Other Metals: Silver, Platinum, and Palladium 376
Predicting the Price of Gold for the Decade 377
Conclusion 383
Part Five: PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER 387
Chapter 16: Forecast for the Future 389
The Crisis Horizon in Pictures 392
Combining the Average-Case and Worst-Case Scenarios of What Might Happen to the U.S. Economy 398
What Should You Do 400
Summarizing the History 402
Chapter 17: Looking Over the Horizon to See the Best Investments 405
How Debt Affects the Currency and the Real Economy 405
Currency and Financial Problems 406
Who Will Buy Our Government Debt? 409
The Real Economy and Its Tepid Growth 414
International Currency Crisis 427
Predictions 435
Predictions for 2010 436
List of Tables and Figures 441
About the Author 449
Index 451
Acknowledgments 11
Introduction 13
Part One: ECONOMIC FORCES 21
Chapter 1: The Budget Deficit Drives the Growth of All Debt 23
The Budget Reflects the State of the Nation 26
Federal Budget Spending 28
Taxes and the Federal Budget 28
Federal Budget Borrowing 29
How Will the Deficits Be Funded? 32
History Puts the Credit Crisis in Perspective 34
Historical Projections Have Underestimated Deficits 35
The Components of Government Spending 37
How Government Debt Compares to Inflation in Other Countries 42
Conclusion 43
Chapter 2: The Trade Deficit and U.S. Dependency on Foreign Investments 47
The United States Is the Largest Debtor 48
The Connections between the Trade Deficit and the U.S. Economy 51
The Connection between Home Mortgages and the Trade Deficit 56
Implications of a Falling Trade Deficit 58
Trade Deficits and Government Budget Deficits 59
The Effects of the Trade Deficit 60
Trade Imbalances Hurt the Dollar Status and Set Up Foreign Investors 65
Connecting the Trade Deficit, Budget Deficit, and the Fed 68
Sources to Watch 70
Custody Accounts at the Federal Reserve 78
What Will Be the Effect of the Increasing Trade and Budget Deficits? 79
Conclusion 81
Chapter 3: The Big Costs of Health Care, Social Security, and the Military 83
Health Care and Social Security Costs 84
Social Security Will Drag Deficits Lower 88
Defense Spending Is Continuing to Grow 90
Conclusion 93
Part Two: FINANCIAL CRISIS RESPONSE 95
Chapter 4: The Federal Reserve Prints Our Money (Stop the Presses!) 97
What Is the Fed? A Private Profiteer or a Government Agency? 98
Who Benefits from the Fed? 101
How Is the Fed Affecting Our Investment Horizon? 102
The Fed Is Out of Control 103
How Did the Fed Pay for Its Big Expansion? 106
Money Creation at the Fed: Is There Any More to It Than Dropping Money from Helicopters? 110
How the Fed Really Creates Money 111
How Effective Is the Reserve Requirement at Controlling Money? 115
So Why Are We Seeing Deflation in Stocks and Houses Now? 118
Foreigners Are Partners in Our Credit Supply 119
The Government Is Supporting the Economy Rather Than the Dollar 120
Federal Reserve\u2019s New Inflation Policy 122
Who Will Buy All the Treasuries? 123
When Might Deflation Turn to Inflation? 125
Political Implications of Egregious Fed Spending 128
The Fed May Be Acting Beyond Its Intended Authority 130
Conclusion 132
Chapter 5: The Importance of Debt for Predicting Our Economy 135
Our Debt Has Grown Way Beyond What Our Economy Can Support 137
Our Money Is Debt Today 140
Debt and Money Have Grown Together 140
Credit Flows Predict Economic Crisis 141
Credit Expanding and Contracting Defines Our Financial Future 146
Economic Effects of Debt 150
Where Is the Inflation? 152
Managing the Overextended Debt Leads to Inflation 153
The Implications of the Bursting Debt Bubble 156
Conclusion 157
Chapter 6: The Big-Picture Model of Our Economy 159
Equilibrium Is an Illusion: The Underlying Structure of Financial Systems 160
The Overview Model 163
The Virtuous Cycle of Growth 163
The Vicious Cycle of Destruction 167
Seeing the Relationships in the Data 170
Conclusion 175
Part Three: RECESSION OR DEPRESSION? 177
Chapter 7: What Can the 1929 Great Depression Teach Us about Today\u2019s Crisis? 179
Comparing the Stock Market during the Depression with the Current Economy 180
Comparing Prices and the Money Supply during the Depression with the Current Economy 183
Comparing Industrial Output during the Depression with the Current Economy 187
Comparing the Value of Gold during the Depression with the Current Economy 188
Comparing Interest Rates during the Depression with the Current Economy 189
Comparing Public Debt during the Depression with the Current Economy 190
Comparing the Price of Oil during the Depression with the Current Economy 191
Comparing Corporate Bond Rates during the Depression with the Current Economy 191
Comparing Unemployment during the Depression with the Current Economy 193
Comparing the Producer Price Index (PPI) during the Depression with the Current Economy 194
Comparing Housing Growth during the Depression with the Current Economy 194
Comparing the Trade Balance during the Depression with the Current Economy 196
Comparing Excess Reserves at the Fed during the Depression with the Current Economy 196
Conclusion 197
Chapter 8: What the United States Can Learn from Japan\u2019s Lost Decade(s): 1989\u20132009 203
Japan\u2019s Lost Decades: How Japan\u2019s Economic Bubble Burst after 1989 204
Quantitative Easing Is What You Do after Cutting Rates to Zero 210
Comparing Quantitative Easing in Japan and the United States to 2009 217
Trade Deficit and Surplus Are Opposite Between the United States and Japan 220
Comparing the National Government Deficits of Japan and the United States 221
Lessons from the Japanese Experiment 222
Investment Implications in Japan 225
Chapter 9: What the United States Can Learn from German and Other European Hyperinflations, and from China Today 231
China\u2019s Currency and Economic Expansion Actions Today 237
Chinese Money and Credit Spike Upward 239
Other Countries\u2019 Inflation after Big Government Deficits 241
Currencies No Longer in Circulation 242
Looking at Other Financial Crises for Similar Characteristics to the United States 243
Review of What We Learned from the Currencies of the World 244
Conclusion 245
Part Four: INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES 247
Chapter 10: The Stock Market May Be Dead for Another Decade 249
A Stock Market Model 249
Long-Term Cycles 253
Dividend Yield Gives an Idea of Valuation 255
Looking at Stock Market Sectors Gives Clues about Which Sectors May Be Overvalued 256
Earnings by Sector Reveal the Drivers of Performance 258
Conclusion 259
Chapter 11: Energy in the 21st Century: The End of the Petroleum Age 261
Peak Oil 262
Discovery of New Oil Is Key, but It\u2019s Not Happening 266
Supply Is Constrained 269
Hubbert\u2019s Curve and the Timing of Peak Oil 270
Natural Gas 272
Coal and Uranium Will Be the Major Energy Sources of the Future 274
Putting the Scenario Together 275
Perspective from a Nobel Laureate 277
Forecasting Energy Prices 277
Conclusion 280
Chapter 12: Food, Grain Trading 281
Grains: Tight Supply Drove Prices Higher Worldwide 283
Pricing Model for Grains 283
Ethanol 288
Cattle and Hogs 289
Conclusion 291
Chapter 13: The Demise of the Dollar 293
U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates and Purchasing Power 294
What\u2019s Driving the Dollar? 297
Sacrificing the Dollar for the Economy 300
Was the Fed Intervening for the Dollar? Federal Reserve Swaps 301
Global Enthusiasm for the Dollar Wanes 306
Oil Countries Are Turning Inward 307
Is the Euro a Viable Alternative to the Dollar? 309
How Gold Stacks Up against the Dollar 310
How Stocks Compare to the Dollar 311
Where Could the Dollar Go? 311
Putting the Trends Together 313
Investment Recommendations: Advice for Traders 315
Conclusion 316
Chapter 14: Interest Rates: The Trade of the Decade 319
How the Growth of Public Debt Has Affected Interest Rates 324
Government Credit Expansion Is Huge 326
The Debt Trap 327
Health Care Is Bankrupting the United States 329
The U.S. Treasury Debt Is Short Term 330
Tax Receipts Are Falling 331
Other Central Banks, Money Expansion 331
The Fed Pushes Mortgage Rates Down by Buying Mortgage-Backed Securities 333
A Close-Up Look at Commodity Price Inflation and Rates 335
Interest Rates Rise as the Dollar Falls 338
International Interest Rates and Currencies 339
Interest Rates as Best Investment Opportunity 342
Conclusion 344
Chapter 15: Gold Is the Only Real Money 345
How the Price of Gold Reflects the Macroeconomic Forces 346
Gold Was Used by Central Banks to Back Their Currencies 349
How Gold Moves with Other Parts of the Economy 355
Gold Supply and Demand 356
Investment Demand Drives Price 359
Summarizing Some of the Gold Supply and Demand Forces 362
Gold Leasing and Forward Hedging 362
The Seasonality of Gold Demand Also Affects Prices 366
How to Invest in Gold 367
Valuing Gold Mines Based on Gold in the Ground 369
Futures Contracts 374
Investing in Other Metals: Silver, Platinum, and Palladium 376
Predicting the Price of Gold for the Decade 377
Conclusion 383
Part Five: PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER 387
Chapter 16: Forecast for the Future 389
The Crisis Horizon in Pictures 392
Combining the Average-Case and Worst-Case Scenarios of What Might Happen to the U.S. Economy 398
What Should You Do 400
Summarizing the History 402
Chapter 17: Looking Over the Horizon to See the Best Investments 405
How Debt Affects the Currency and the Real Economy 405
Currency and Financial Problems 406
Who Will Buy Our Government Debt? 409
The Real Economy and Its Tepid Growth 414
International Currency Crisis 427
Predictions 435
Predictions for 2010 436
List of Tables and Figures 441
About the Author 449
Index 451
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