简介
Recent technological advances, particularly in microelectronics and telecommunications, biotechnology, and advanced materials, pose critical challenges and opportunities for developing countries, and for the development banks and other organizations that serve them. Those countries that fail to adapt to the transformations driven by new technologies in industry, agriculture, health, environment, energy, education, and other sectors may find it difficult to avoid falling behind. This book represents a joint effort by the World Bank and the National Research Council to survey the status and effect of technology change in key sectors and to recommend action by the development organizations, government, private sector and the scientific and technological community.
目录
Marshaling Technology for Development 1
Copyright 2
Preface 5
OBJECTIVES AND ORGANIZATION OF THE SYMPOSIUM 7
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 8
Contents 9
Marshaling Technology for Development 11
INTRODUCTION 13
The Science of Sustainable Development 15
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: AN INSTITUTIONAL PRIORITY 16
THE POWER AND PRODUCTIVITY OF SCIENCE 16
CONDITIONS FOR THE APPLICATION OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY TO DEVELOPMENT 17
SUMMARY 18
Forces Reshaping the World Economy 20
TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION 20
ECONOMIC REVOLUTION 22
A GOLDEN AGE? 22
THE CHALLENGES FACING DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AND THE DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 23
HOW CAN TECHNOLOGY HELP? 24
OBJECTIVES OF THIS SYMPOSIUM 25
NOTE 26
PROCEEDINGS 27
CHAPTER 1\u2014The Globalization of Knowledge and Technology 29
PATHWAYS TO TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION 31
Information and Communications 33
Biotechnology 35
Materials 37
TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 38
CHAPTER 2\u2014Marshaling Technology for Development: Assessing the Challenge 41
CONDITIONS FOR CHANGE 41
CONNECTIVITY 43
THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF TECHNOLOGY 45
CHAPTER 3\u2014Opportunities and Strategies by Sector 47
AGRICULTURE 48
MANUFACTURING AND SERVICES 50
Manufacturing 50
Services 52
THE ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY 53
HEALTH 56
EDUCATION 58
CHAPTER 4\u2014Rising to the Challenge: Priorities for the Developing Countries and the International... 62
FOOD SUPPLY 63
PRODUCTIVITY AND COMPETITIVENESS 64
ENVIRONMENTAL AND ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES 66
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT 67
INSTITUTIONAL ROLES 69
Governments 69
Private Sector 69
Scientific and Research Community 70
Development Community 70
INVITED PAPERS 71
The Global Generation, Transmission, and Diffusion of Knowledge: How Can the Developing Countries Benefit 73
THE GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, AND DIFFUSION OF KNOWLEDGE 74
The World Knowledge Infrastructure 74
How Does the Knowledge Infrastructure Actually Work? 77
The Need for a Global Knowledge Strategy 77
THE IMPORTANCE OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION TO THE WORLD ECONOMY 79
HOW DOES TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE HAPPEN? 81
THE COMMERCIALIZATION AND GLOBALIZATION OF INNOVATION 83
POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 88
FORECASTING AND ASSESSMENT IN INVESTMENT DECISIONS 90
WHAT ARE THE FUTURE COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES FOR TODAY'S LABOR-SURPLUS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES? 91
CONCLUSIONS 92
NOTES 93
What We Know and Do Not Know about Technology Transfer: Linking Knowledge to Action 95
THE BASICS OF TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER 96
TYPOLOGIES OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION 99
TECHNOLOGY TRAJECTORIES AND LIFE CYCLES 101
MODELS OF INNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER WITHIN FIRMS 103
NOTES 107
Technological Trends and Applications in Biotechnology 109
GENETIC ENGINEERING: A NEW WORLD 111
MARKET SEGMENTS AND RESEARCH AREAS 115
Biomedical 115
Agriculture 117
Marine Biotechnology 119
Animal Husbandry 119
Single-Cell Protein 120
Environmental Biotechnology 120
Silviculture and the Role of Forests 122
Nonagricultural Marine Biotechnology 123
Energy Production 124
Other Areas 124
Safety and Public Acceptance of Genetically Engineered Products 125
BIOTECHNOLOGY'S POTENTIAL IMPACT ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 126
PROBLEMS IN ADOPTING THE NEW BIOTECHNOLOGIES 127
Lack of Capital 127
Property Rights and Biological Prospecting 128
Safety and Ethical Issues 130
Other Obstacles 131
What Technologies Will Work in Developing Countries? 132
CONCLUSION 132
ACKNOWLEDGMENT 133
NOTES 133
Materials and Critical Technologies 140
THE FACTORS DRIVING TECHNOLOGY 141
Health Care Industry 141
Computer/Communications Industry 142
Transport Industry 142
CRITICAL TECHNOLOGIES 143
INSTITUTIONAL EVOLUTION 144
NOTES 148
Information Technology for Development 149
THE FORCES DRIVING THE MULTIMEDIA REVOLUTION AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE INFORMATION SUPERHIGHWAY 149
THE MULTIMEDIA REVOLUTION 152
AT&T'S VISION OF THE INFORMATION SUPERHIGHWAY 154
THE IMPACTS OF TECHNOLOGY TRENDS ON DEVELOPING NATIONS 154
NOTES 156
Broadened Agricultural Development: Pathways toward the Greening of Revolution 157
THE BROADENING (AND GREENING) OF THE AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PARADIGM 160
TECHNOLOGICAL BREAKTHROUGHS 162
RAPIDLY EVOLVING AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES 163
SOLUTIONS TO KEY PRODUCTION PROBLEMS 167
PATHWAYS OF CHANGE FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRY SYSTEMS 169
CONCLUSION 171
NOTES 172
Lessons from the Evolution of Electronics Manufacturing Technologies 173
FORCES AFFECTING ELECTRONICS MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY 173
TRENDS IN MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY 175
People 175
Manufacturing Assembly 177
Design Interfaces 181
Supplier Interfaces 183
SUMMARY 186
NOTES 186
Innovations in Energy Technology 187
AN OVERVIEW 188
ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES 190
Coal-based Technologies 192
Fuel Cells 192
Renewable Technologies 194
MODULARITY AND DISPERSED GENERATION 196
DELIVERY OF POWER 198
CONCLUSION 199
Educational Technology for Developing Countries 201
MATCHING EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGY AND CONTENT TO SPECIFIC ECONOMIC GOALS 201
RECENT TRENDS IN ESTABLISHED TECHNOLOGY 202
TWO EXAMPLES OF EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGY 203
Interactive Radio Instruction 204
Intelligent Coaching of Oral Reading 206
WHAT MAKES LEARNING HAPPEN? 207
The Beehive Model 209
The Smart Worker Model 209
SPECIAL NEEDS FOR WORKER AND INSTRUCTOR TRAINING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 210
Technical Training before Entering the Work Force 211
Training for New Tasks 212
A Technologically Literate and Innovation-Receptive Population 213
REQUIREMENTS FOR SCHOOLING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 213
Adapting to Local Language and Conceptual Structure 213
Concreteness 214
Developing a Teacher/Instructor Training Infrastructure 214
Assessment 215
Focusing on Areas of Greatest Need 216
EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES WITH POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 216
Combinations of Desktop Publishing and Printing Technologies 216
CD-ROM-Based Multimedia 217
Distributed Information Network Schemes 217
Affordable Basic Artificial Intelligence Tools 218
DEVELOPMENT OF TECHNOLOGY FOR EDUCATION AND TRAINING 219
NOTES 220
Technological Innovation and Services 222
EMBODIED SERVICES 223
TRANSBORDER SERVICES: DATA EXPORTING 225
TRANSBORDER SERVICES: INFORMATION IMPORTING 227
CONCLUSION 230
NOTES 230
Health Technology and Developing Countries: Dilemmas and Applications 231
CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS IN HEALTH AND MEDICAL TECHNOLOGY 232
Technology and Fundamental Research 232
The Health Technologies Market and Its Implications 233
Technological Disappointments and the Dilemma of \ 234
HEALTH CARE AND TECHNOLOGY 236
Strategy Shifts: The Expansion of Outpatient Approaches 236
Information 237
Behavioral Research and Nontechnological Challenges 238
The Genetic Revolution in Health and Its Implications 239
TECHNOLOGY NEEDS OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 240
New Reproductive Health Technologies 240
Micronutrient Research and Technology Development 241
Vaccine Development 241
Expanded Primary Health Care 242
Chronic Diseases 243
Microbial Threats 244
HIV Infection 245
INTEGRATED SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CENTERS 245
NOTES 247
Sustainable Development: Mirage or Achievable Goal? 249
DEFINING THE PROBLEMS 252
PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE 252
NOTES 255
APPENDIX 257
SYMPOSIUM PARTICIPANTS 259
Copyright 2
Preface 5
OBJECTIVES AND ORGANIZATION OF THE SYMPOSIUM 7
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 8
Contents 9
Marshaling Technology for Development 11
INTRODUCTION 13
The Science of Sustainable Development 15
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: AN INSTITUTIONAL PRIORITY 16
THE POWER AND PRODUCTIVITY OF SCIENCE 16
CONDITIONS FOR THE APPLICATION OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY TO DEVELOPMENT 17
SUMMARY 18
Forces Reshaping the World Economy 20
TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION 20
ECONOMIC REVOLUTION 22
A GOLDEN AGE? 22
THE CHALLENGES FACING DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AND THE DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 23
HOW CAN TECHNOLOGY HELP? 24
OBJECTIVES OF THIS SYMPOSIUM 25
NOTE 26
PROCEEDINGS 27
CHAPTER 1\u2014The Globalization of Knowledge and Technology 29
PATHWAYS TO TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION 31
Information and Communications 33
Biotechnology 35
Materials 37
TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 38
CHAPTER 2\u2014Marshaling Technology for Development: Assessing the Challenge 41
CONDITIONS FOR CHANGE 41
CONNECTIVITY 43
THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF TECHNOLOGY 45
CHAPTER 3\u2014Opportunities and Strategies by Sector 47
AGRICULTURE 48
MANUFACTURING AND SERVICES 50
Manufacturing 50
Services 52
THE ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY 53
HEALTH 56
EDUCATION 58
CHAPTER 4\u2014Rising to the Challenge: Priorities for the Developing Countries and the International... 62
FOOD SUPPLY 63
PRODUCTIVITY AND COMPETITIVENESS 64
ENVIRONMENTAL AND ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES 66
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT 67
INSTITUTIONAL ROLES 69
Governments 69
Private Sector 69
Scientific and Research Community 70
Development Community 70
INVITED PAPERS 71
The Global Generation, Transmission, and Diffusion of Knowledge: How Can the Developing Countries Benefit 73
THE GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, AND DIFFUSION OF KNOWLEDGE 74
The World Knowledge Infrastructure 74
How Does the Knowledge Infrastructure Actually Work? 77
The Need for a Global Knowledge Strategy 77
THE IMPORTANCE OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION TO THE WORLD ECONOMY 79
HOW DOES TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE HAPPEN? 81
THE COMMERCIALIZATION AND GLOBALIZATION OF INNOVATION 83
POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 88
FORECASTING AND ASSESSMENT IN INVESTMENT DECISIONS 90
WHAT ARE THE FUTURE COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES FOR TODAY'S LABOR-SURPLUS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES? 91
CONCLUSIONS 92
NOTES 93
What We Know and Do Not Know about Technology Transfer: Linking Knowledge to Action 95
THE BASICS OF TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER 96
TYPOLOGIES OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION 99
TECHNOLOGY TRAJECTORIES AND LIFE CYCLES 101
MODELS OF INNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER WITHIN FIRMS 103
NOTES 107
Technological Trends and Applications in Biotechnology 109
GENETIC ENGINEERING: A NEW WORLD 111
MARKET SEGMENTS AND RESEARCH AREAS 115
Biomedical 115
Agriculture 117
Marine Biotechnology 119
Animal Husbandry 119
Single-Cell Protein 120
Environmental Biotechnology 120
Silviculture and the Role of Forests 122
Nonagricultural Marine Biotechnology 123
Energy Production 124
Other Areas 124
Safety and Public Acceptance of Genetically Engineered Products 125
BIOTECHNOLOGY'S POTENTIAL IMPACT ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 126
PROBLEMS IN ADOPTING THE NEW BIOTECHNOLOGIES 127
Lack of Capital 127
Property Rights and Biological Prospecting 128
Safety and Ethical Issues 130
Other Obstacles 131
What Technologies Will Work in Developing Countries? 132
CONCLUSION 132
ACKNOWLEDGMENT 133
NOTES 133
Materials and Critical Technologies 140
THE FACTORS DRIVING TECHNOLOGY 141
Health Care Industry 141
Computer/Communications Industry 142
Transport Industry 142
CRITICAL TECHNOLOGIES 143
INSTITUTIONAL EVOLUTION 144
NOTES 148
Information Technology for Development 149
THE FORCES DRIVING THE MULTIMEDIA REVOLUTION AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE INFORMATION SUPERHIGHWAY 149
THE MULTIMEDIA REVOLUTION 152
AT&T'S VISION OF THE INFORMATION SUPERHIGHWAY 154
THE IMPACTS OF TECHNOLOGY TRENDS ON DEVELOPING NATIONS 154
NOTES 156
Broadened Agricultural Development: Pathways toward the Greening of Revolution 157
THE BROADENING (AND GREENING) OF THE AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PARADIGM 160
TECHNOLOGICAL BREAKTHROUGHS 162
RAPIDLY EVOLVING AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES 163
SOLUTIONS TO KEY PRODUCTION PROBLEMS 167
PATHWAYS OF CHANGE FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRY SYSTEMS 169
CONCLUSION 171
NOTES 172
Lessons from the Evolution of Electronics Manufacturing Technologies 173
FORCES AFFECTING ELECTRONICS MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY 173
TRENDS IN MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY 175
People 175
Manufacturing Assembly 177
Design Interfaces 181
Supplier Interfaces 183
SUMMARY 186
NOTES 186
Innovations in Energy Technology 187
AN OVERVIEW 188
ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES 190
Coal-based Technologies 192
Fuel Cells 192
Renewable Technologies 194
MODULARITY AND DISPERSED GENERATION 196
DELIVERY OF POWER 198
CONCLUSION 199
Educational Technology for Developing Countries 201
MATCHING EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGY AND CONTENT TO SPECIFIC ECONOMIC GOALS 201
RECENT TRENDS IN ESTABLISHED TECHNOLOGY 202
TWO EXAMPLES OF EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGY 203
Interactive Radio Instruction 204
Intelligent Coaching of Oral Reading 206
WHAT MAKES LEARNING HAPPEN? 207
The Beehive Model 209
The Smart Worker Model 209
SPECIAL NEEDS FOR WORKER AND INSTRUCTOR TRAINING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 210
Technical Training before Entering the Work Force 211
Training for New Tasks 212
A Technologically Literate and Innovation-Receptive Population 213
REQUIREMENTS FOR SCHOOLING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 213
Adapting to Local Language and Conceptual Structure 213
Concreteness 214
Developing a Teacher/Instructor Training Infrastructure 214
Assessment 215
Focusing on Areas of Greatest Need 216
EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES WITH POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 216
Combinations of Desktop Publishing and Printing Technologies 216
CD-ROM-Based Multimedia 217
Distributed Information Network Schemes 217
Affordable Basic Artificial Intelligence Tools 218
DEVELOPMENT OF TECHNOLOGY FOR EDUCATION AND TRAINING 219
NOTES 220
Technological Innovation and Services 222
EMBODIED SERVICES 223
TRANSBORDER SERVICES: DATA EXPORTING 225
TRANSBORDER SERVICES: INFORMATION IMPORTING 227
CONCLUSION 230
NOTES 230
Health Technology and Developing Countries: Dilemmas and Applications 231
CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS IN HEALTH AND MEDICAL TECHNOLOGY 232
Technology and Fundamental Research 232
The Health Technologies Market and Its Implications 233
Technological Disappointments and the Dilemma of \ 234
HEALTH CARE AND TECHNOLOGY 236
Strategy Shifts: The Expansion of Outpatient Approaches 236
Information 237
Behavioral Research and Nontechnological Challenges 238
The Genetic Revolution in Health and Its Implications 239
TECHNOLOGY NEEDS OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 240
New Reproductive Health Technologies 240
Micronutrient Research and Technology Development 241
Vaccine Development 241
Expanded Primary Health Care 242
Chronic Diseases 243
Microbial Threats 244
HIV Infection 245
INTEGRATED SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CENTERS 245
NOTES 247
Sustainable Development: Mirage or Achievable Goal? 249
DEFINING THE PROBLEMS 252
PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE 252
NOTES 255
APPENDIX 257
SYMPOSIUM PARTICIPANTS 259
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