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简介
With the born storyteller's command of narrative and imaginativeapproach, Leonard Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how our lives areprofoundly informed by chance and randomness and how everythingfrom wine ratings and corporate success to school grades andpolitical polls are less reliable than we believe.
By showing us thetrue nature of chance and revealing the psychological illusionsthat cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives usthe tools we need to make more informed decisions. From theclassroom to the courtroom and from financial markets tosupermarkets, Mlodinow's intriguing and illuminating look at howrandomness, chance, and probability affect our daily lives willintrigue, awe, and inspire.
目录
Prologue
Chapter 1: Peering through the Eyepieceof Randomness
The hidden role of chance . . . when human beings can beoutperformed by a rat.
Chapter 2: The Laws of Truths andHalf-Truths
The basic principles of probability and how they are abused . .. why a good story is often less likely to be true than a flimsyexplanation.
Chapter 3: Finding Your Way through a Spaceof Possibilities
A framework for thinking about random situations . . . from agambler in plague-ridden Italy to Let’s Make aDeal.
Chapter 4: Tracking the Pathways to Success
How to count the number of ways in which events can happen, andwhy it matters . . . the mathematical meaning ofexpectation.
Chapter 5: The Dueling Laws of Large andSmall Numbers
The extent to which probabilities are reflected in the resultswe observe . . . Zeno’s paradox, the concept of limits, and beatingthe casino at roulette.
Chapter 6: False Positives andPositive Fallacies
How to adjust expectations in light of past events or newknowledge . . . mistakes in conditional probability from medicalscreening to the O. J. Simpson trial and the prosecutor’sfallacy.
Chapter 7: Measurement and the Law ofErrors
The meaning and lack of meaning in measurements . . . the bellcurve and wine ratings, political polls, grades, and the positionof planets.
Chapter 8: The Order in Chaos
How large numbers can wash out the disorder of randomness . . .or why 200,000,000 drivers form a creature of habit.
Chapter 9: Illusions of Patterns and Patterns of Illusion
Why we are often fooled by the regularities in chance events . .. can a million consecutive zeroes or the success of Wall Streetgurus be random?
Chapter 10: The Drunkard’s Walk
Why chance is a more fundamental conception than causality . . .Bruce Willis, Bill Gates, and the normal accident theory oflife.
Acknowledgments
Notes
Index
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