简介
From the Publisher: Fundamental change occurs most often in one of two ways: as a "fatal discontinuity," a sudden catastrophic event that is potentially world changing, or as a persistent, gradual trend. Global catastrophes include volcanic eruptions, viral pandemics, wars, and large-scale terrorist attacks; trends are demographic, environmental, economic, and political shifts that unfold over time. In this provocative book, scientist Vaclav Smil takes a wide-ranging, interdisciplinary look at the catastrophes and trends the next fifty years may bring. This is not a book of forecasts or scenarios but one that reminds us to pay attention to, and plan for, the consequences of apparently unpredictable events and the ultimate direction of long-term trends. Smil first looks at rare but cataclysmic events, both natural and human-produced, then at trends of global importance: the transition from fossil fuels to other energy sources; demographic and political shifts in Europe, Japan, Russia, China, the United States, and Islamic nations; the battle for global primacy; and growing economic and social inequality. He also considers environmental change - in some ways an amalgam of sudden discontinuities and gradual change - and assesses the often misunderstood complexities of global warming. Global Catastrophes and Trends does not come down on the side of either doom-and-gloom scenarios or techno-euphoria. Instead, relying on long-term historical perspectives and a distaste for the rigid compartmentalization of knowledge, Smil argues that understanding change will help us reverse negative trends and minimize the risk of catastrophe. - Dust jacket.
目录
Preface: What to Expect p. vii
How (Not) to Look Ahead p. 1
Fatal Discontinuities p. 9
Natural Catastrophes p. 13
Encounters with Extraterrestrial Objects p. 16
Volcanic Mega-eruptions and Collapses p. 28
Influenza Pandemics p. 38
Violent Conflicts p. 49
Transformational Wars p. 50
Terrorist Attacks p. 58
Imaginable Surprises p. 66
Unfolding Trends p. 71
Energy Transitions p. 75
Dominant Fuels, Enduring Prime Movers p. 77
Solar (Nuclear?) Civilization p. 82
New World Order p. 91
Europe's Place p. 92
Japan's Decline p. 102
Islam's Choice p. 110
Russia's Way p. 120
China's Rise p. 129
The United States' Retreat p. 141
Place on Top p. 153
Dominance and Decline p. 154
Globalization and Inequality p. 163
Environmental Change p. 171
Global Warming and Its Consequences p. 172
Rising Temperatures p. 175
Ocean's Rise, Dynamics and Composition p. 181
Ecosystems and Economies p. 187
Other Global Changes p. 195
Changing Water and Nitrogen Cycles p. 196
Loss of Biodiversity and Invasive Species p. 203
Antibiotic Resistance p. 209
Biosphere's Integrity p. 212
Dealing with Risk and Uncertainty p. 219
Relative Fears p. 224
Quantifying the Odds p. 226
Rational Attitudes p. 231
Acting as Risk Minimizers p. 238
The Next 50 Years p. 243
Units and Abbreviations, Prefixes p. 255
Acronyms p. 257
References p. 259
Name Index p. 297
Subject Index p. 299
How (Not) to Look Ahead p. 1
Fatal Discontinuities p. 9
Natural Catastrophes p. 13
Encounters with Extraterrestrial Objects p. 16
Volcanic Mega-eruptions and Collapses p. 28
Influenza Pandemics p. 38
Violent Conflicts p. 49
Transformational Wars p. 50
Terrorist Attacks p. 58
Imaginable Surprises p. 66
Unfolding Trends p. 71
Energy Transitions p. 75
Dominant Fuels, Enduring Prime Movers p. 77
Solar (Nuclear?) Civilization p. 82
New World Order p. 91
Europe's Place p. 92
Japan's Decline p. 102
Islam's Choice p. 110
Russia's Way p. 120
China's Rise p. 129
The United States' Retreat p. 141
Place on Top p. 153
Dominance and Decline p. 154
Globalization and Inequality p. 163
Environmental Change p. 171
Global Warming and Its Consequences p. 172
Rising Temperatures p. 175
Ocean's Rise, Dynamics and Composition p. 181
Ecosystems and Economies p. 187
Other Global Changes p. 195
Changing Water and Nitrogen Cycles p. 196
Loss of Biodiversity and Invasive Species p. 203
Antibiotic Resistance p. 209
Biosphere's Integrity p. 212
Dealing with Risk and Uncertainty p. 219
Relative Fears p. 224
Quantifying the Odds p. 226
Rational Attitudes p. 231
Acting as Risk Minimizers p. 238
The Next 50 Years p. 243
Units and Abbreviations, Prefixes p. 255
Acronyms p. 257
References p. 259
Name Index p. 297
Subject Index p. 299
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