简介
Summary:
Publisher Summary 1
"How do borders affect trade? Are cultural and institutional differences important for trade? Is environmental policy relevant to trade? How does one's income or wage relate to the fact that trade partners are nearby or far away?" "These are just some of the important questions that can be answered using the gravity model of international trade. This model predicts and explains bilateral trade flows in terms of the economic size of, and distance between, trading partners (e.g. states, regions, countries,trading blocs). In recent years, there has been a surge of interest in this model and it is now one of the most widely employed tools in applied international economics. This book traces the history of the gravity model and takes stock of recent methodological and theoretical advances, including new approximations for multilateral trade resistance, insightful analyses of the measurement of economic distance, and analyses of offoreign direct investment." ""Theoretical foundations and empirical estimation strategy of gravity models have significantly advanced over the last years. By tracing the history of this evolution and offering a rich sample of applications, this book will prove to be a very useful reference to both those new to the field and those insearch of an up-to-date treatment of theoretical and methodological issues related to gravity models." Roberta Piermartini, Senior Economist, Economic Research and Statistics Division, WTO, Geneva"--BOOK JACKET.
Publisher Summary 2
How do borders affect trade? Are cultural and institutional differences important for trade? Is environmental policy relevant to trade? How does one's income or wage relate to the fact that trade partners are nearby or far away?
These are just some of the important questions that can be answered using the gravity model of international trade. This model predicts and explains bilateral trade flows in terms of the economic size of, and distance between, trading partners (e.g. states, regions, countries, trading blocs). In recent years, there has been a surge of interest in this model and it is now one of the most widely employed tools in applied international economics. This book traces the history of the gravity model and takes stock of recent methodological and theoretical advances, including new approximations for multilateral trade resistance, insightful analyses of the measurement of economic distance, and analyses of offoreign direct investment.
"Theoretical foundations and empirical estimation strategy of gravity models have significantly advanced over the last years. By tracing the history of this evolution and offering a rich sample of applications, this book will prove to be a very useful reference to both those new to the field and those in search of an up-to-date treatment of theoretical and methodological issues related to gravity models." Roberta Piermartini, Senior Economist, Economic Research and Statistics Division, WTO, Geneva
目录
Cover 1
Title 5
Copyright 6
Contents 7
List of figures 9
List of tables 11
List of contributors 14
1 Introduction: The comeback of the gravity model 17
1.1 Introduction 17
1.2 The gravity model 20
1.2.1 The history of gravity 20
1.2.2 The micro-foundation of gravity 23
1.2.3 Empirical applications of the gravity equation: empirical strategies 27
1.2.3.1 Multilateral resistance 27
1.2.3.2 Zero trade flows 29
1.2.3.3 Measurement of distance 30
1.2.3.4 Micro-data and product groups 31
1.3 About this book 32
1.3.1 Methodology 33
1.3.2 Distance in the gravity model 34
1.3.3 Specific applications 36
1.4 The road ahead 38
REFERENCES 39
Part I Methodology 43
2 A general equilibrium theory for estimating gravity equations of bilateral FDI, final goods trade, and intermediate trade flows 45
1 Introduction 45
2 Decomposing aggregate bilateral trade flows into final and intermediate goods trade flows 47
3 The theoretical model 52
3.1 Consumers 54
3.2 Final differentiated good producers 58
3.3 Final homogeneous goods producers 61
3.4 Intermediate differentiated goods producers 61
3.5 Profit functions and pricing equations 63
3.6 Factor-endowment and current-account-balance constraints 65
4 Calibration of the model 65
4.1 Exogenous variables 66
4.2 Other parameter values 67
5 A theoretical rationale for gravity equations of FDI, final goods trade, and intermediates trade 69
5.1 Economic size and similarity 69
5.1.1 Proposition 1 72
5.1.2 Proposition 2 72
5.1.3 Proposition 3 73
5.2 Trade and investment costs 73
5.2.1 Proposition 4 74
5.2.2 Proposition 5 74
6 Estimation of gravity equations for final goods, intermediate goods, and FDI flows 75
6.1 Specifications and data 75
6.2 Empirical results 76
6.3 Robustness analysis 79
7 Conclusions 81
REFERENCES 82
APPENDIX 85
3 The incidence of gravity 87
1 Trade frictions and incidence 88
2 Determination of incidence 94
3 Incidence in practice 97
4 General equilibrium 98
4.1 Allocation for given world prices 98
4.2 Equilibrium world prices 102
5 Conclusion 102
REFERENCES 103
4 Approximating general equilibrium impacts of trade liberalizations using the gravity equation 104
1 Introduction 104
2 Background 109
2.1 The A-vW theoretical model 110
2.2 The econometric model 112
2.3 Estimating comparative-static effects 113
3 Theory 113
4 Estimation 119
4.1 Estimation using the McCallum\u2013A-vW\u2013Feenstra dataset for actual Canadian\u2013US trade flows 121
4.2 Monte Carlo analyses 125
4.2.1 Monte Carlo analysis 1 125
4.2.2 Monte Carlo analysis 2 128
4.3 Potential uses of the approximation method 130
5 Comparative statics: when does the approximation method work well, and why 132
5.1 Analytical estimates of country-specific comparative statics using the approximation approach 133
5.1.1 A-vW\u2019s implication 1 134
5.1.2 A-vW\u2019s implication 2 135
5.1.3 A-vW\u2019s implication 3 136
5.1.4 Limitations of the approximation method 136
5.2 Comparative statics using world trade flows 136
5.2.1 NAFTA 136
5.2.2 The European Economic Area 138
5.2.3 All FTAs 140
5.2.4 Summary 140
5.3 Explaining the large MR changes and the approximation errors 141
5.3.1 A second-order Taylor-series expansion 141
5.3.2 The role of\u2026as the source of approximation errors 142
6 Conclusions 145
REFERENCES 146
APPENDIX 148
5 An extended gravity model with substitution applied to international trade 151
1 Introduction 151
2 Derivation of the extended gravity model 153
2.1 Aggregate supply 153
2.2 Aggregate demand 154
2.3 Geographical allocation of demand 154
2.4 Attractiveness index 155
2.5 Bilateral demand 155
2.6 Equilibrium 155
2.7 Alternative theoretical foundations of the extended gravity model 157
3 The extended gravity model 160
3.1 Comparison of the extended gravity model to the traditional gravity model 161
3.2 Indices of the geo-economic position 161
3.3 Substitution structure 162
3.4 Econometric issues 163
4 Estimation results 164
4.1 Comparison of the gravity model with the EGM 165
4.2 Interpretation of the EGM parameter estimates 167
4.3 Individual parameter estimates 168
4.4 The indices of the geo-economic position 171
5 Conclusions 172
REFERENCES 173
APPENDIX A : EXPLANATION OF THE DATA USED 175
APPENDIX B : ESTIMATES OF VARIANTS ON THE MAIN MODELS 177
Part II Distance in the gravity model 179
6 Illusory border effects: Distance mismeasurement infiates estimates of home bias in trade 181
1 Introduction 181
2 Prior measures of distance 183
2.1 Between-unit distances 183
2.2 Within-unit distances 184
3 Effective distances between \u201cstates\u201d 187
4 Geometric examples 189
4.1 States along a line 189
4.2 States on a plane 191
5 Estimating border effects 193
6 Empirical applications 198
6.1 The impact of \u201cborders\u201d within the United States 199
6.2 The impact of borders within the European Union 201
6.3 Transportability 201
7 Conclusion 205
REFERENCES 206
7 Trade costs, market access, and economic geography: Why the empirical specification of trade costs matters 209
1 Introduction 209
2 Trade costs and the wage equation in NEG 212
2.1 The basic NEG model 212
2.2 Estimating the wage equation 215
2.2.1 Direct non-linear estimation of the wage equation 215
2.2.2 Two-step linear estimation of the wage equation making use of trade data 216
3 The trade cost function 218
i. Functional form 220
ii. Variables included 220
4 Data 226
5 Estimation results: trade costs and market access 226
5.1 Inferring trade costs from trade flows 227
5.2 Varying trade costs and the impact on market access 230
5.3 Trade costs and the spatial reach of an income shock in Belgium 232
6 Conclusions 236
REFERENCES 237
APPENDIX 239
8 Intangible barriers to international trade: A sectoral approach 240
1 Introduction 240
2 The gravity model in international trade 242
3 Multidimensional distance: institutions, culture, and trade 244
3.1 The network view on trade 244
3.2 Insecurity of property and trade 246
3.3 Cultural differences as trade barrier 246
4 Data and estimation method 248
4.1 Trade data 248
4.2 Multidimensional distance 250
4.3 Estimation method 251
5 Results 253
5.1 An update of Rauch (1999) 253
5.2 The impact of cultural and institutional distance 257
5.3 More detailed product groups 260
6 Conclusions 262
REFERENCES 263
APPENDIX: DESCRIPTION OF THE DATASET 265
Part III Specific applications 269
9 International environmental arrangements and international commerce 271
1 Introduction 271
2 Literature survey 272
3 Theory 273
3.1 Pure reputation model 273
3.2 Solving the model 275
3.2.1 Proposition 1 278
3.3 Adding punishment via international environmental arrangements 278
3.3.1 Proposition 2 279
4 Empirics 279
4.1 Specification 280
4.2 Data 282
4.3 Results 283
5 Summary 286
REFERENCES 286
APPENDIX 287
9.A.1 Proof of proposition 1 287
9.A.2 Proof of proposition 2 288
9.A.2.1 Conditions for separating equilibrium 288
10 Diplomatic relations and trade reorientation in transition countries 294
1 Introduction 294
2 The trade transition 296
3 Data and methodology 299
3.1 Discussion of data 303
4 Results 304
5 Conclusions 306
REFERENCES 308
APPENDIX: DERIVATION OF EQUATION 10.2 309
11 Economic and financial integration and the rise of cross-border M&As 312
1 Introduction 312
2 Cross-border M&As 316
3 Methodology and estimation strategy 321
4 Estimation results 323
4.1 Baseline estimations 323
4.2 Baseline estimation sensitivity analysis 326
4.2.1 US interest rates 326
4.2.2 Market structure 326
4.2.3 Macro-economic distortions 327
4.3 Market potential 327
4.4 The baseline model over time 328
5 Conclusions 330
REFERENCES 331
APPENDIX A : REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF CROSS-BORDER M&AS 334
APPENDIX B : BASELINE ESTIMATIONS WITH DIFFERENT FINANCIAL MARKET VARIABLES 335
12 The impact of economic geography on GDP per capita in OECD countries 339
1 Introduction and main findings 339
2 General empirical framework 341
3 Economic distance 344
3.1 Why proximity matters 345
3.2 The distance of OECD countries to world markets 346
3.2.1 Population density, sum of distances, and market potential 346
3.2.2 Market and supplier access 347
3.2.3 Comparison of the different measures 349
3.3 Empirical analysis: augmented Solow model and proximity 352
4 Transport costs 359
4.1 Evolution of transport and telecommunications cost indices 360
4.2 Impact of transport costs on openness to trade and GDP per capita 361
5 Conclusion and policy implications 366
REFERENCES 367
Index 371
Title 5
Copyright 6
Contents 7
List of figures 9
List of tables 11
List of contributors 14
1 Introduction: The comeback of the gravity model 17
1.1 Introduction 17
1.2 The gravity model 20
1.2.1 The history of gravity 20
1.2.2 The micro-foundation of gravity 23
1.2.3 Empirical applications of the gravity equation: empirical strategies 27
1.2.3.1 Multilateral resistance 27
1.2.3.2 Zero trade flows 29
1.2.3.3 Measurement of distance 30
1.2.3.4 Micro-data and product groups 31
1.3 About this book 32
1.3.1 Methodology 33
1.3.2 Distance in the gravity model 34
1.3.3 Specific applications 36
1.4 The road ahead 38
REFERENCES 39
Part I Methodology 43
2 A general equilibrium theory for estimating gravity equations of bilateral FDI, final goods trade, and intermediate trade flows 45
1 Introduction 45
2 Decomposing aggregate bilateral trade flows into final and intermediate goods trade flows 47
3 The theoretical model 52
3.1 Consumers 54
3.2 Final differentiated good producers 58
3.3 Final homogeneous goods producers 61
3.4 Intermediate differentiated goods producers 61
3.5 Profit functions and pricing equations 63
3.6 Factor-endowment and current-account-balance constraints 65
4 Calibration of the model 65
4.1 Exogenous variables 66
4.2 Other parameter values 67
5 A theoretical rationale for gravity equations of FDI, final goods trade, and intermediates trade 69
5.1 Economic size and similarity 69
5.1.1 Proposition 1 72
5.1.2 Proposition 2 72
5.1.3 Proposition 3 73
5.2 Trade and investment costs 73
5.2.1 Proposition 4 74
5.2.2 Proposition 5 74
6 Estimation of gravity equations for final goods, intermediate goods, and FDI flows 75
6.1 Specifications and data 75
6.2 Empirical results 76
6.3 Robustness analysis 79
7 Conclusions 81
REFERENCES 82
APPENDIX 85
3 The incidence of gravity 87
1 Trade frictions and incidence 88
2 Determination of incidence 94
3 Incidence in practice 97
4 General equilibrium 98
4.1 Allocation for given world prices 98
4.2 Equilibrium world prices 102
5 Conclusion 102
REFERENCES 103
4 Approximating general equilibrium impacts of trade liberalizations using the gravity equation 104
1 Introduction 104
2 Background 109
2.1 The A-vW theoretical model 110
2.2 The econometric model 112
2.3 Estimating comparative-static effects 113
3 Theory 113
4 Estimation 119
4.1 Estimation using the McCallum\u2013A-vW\u2013Feenstra dataset for actual Canadian\u2013US trade flows 121
4.2 Monte Carlo analyses 125
4.2.1 Monte Carlo analysis 1 125
4.2.2 Monte Carlo analysis 2 128
4.3 Potential uses of the approximation method 130
5 Comparative statics: when does the approximation method work well, and why 132
5.1 Analytical estimates of country-specific comparative statics using the approximation approach 133
5.1.1 A-vW\u2019s implication 1 134
5.1.2 A-vW\u2019s implication 2 135
5.1.3 A-vW\u2019s implication 3 136
5.1.4 Limitations of the approximation method 136
5.2 Comparative statics using world trade flows 136
5.2.1 NAFTA 136
5.2.2 The European Economic Area 138
5.2.3 All FTAs 140
5.2.4 Summary 140
5.3 Explaining the large MR changes and the approximation errors 141
5.3.1 A second-order Taylor-series expansion 141
5.3.2 The role of\u2026as the source of approximation errors 142
6 Conclusions 145
REFERENCES 146
APPENDIX 148
5 An extended gravity model with substitution applied to international trade 151
1 Introduction 151
2 Derivation of the extended gravity model 153
2.1 Aggregate supply 153
2.2 Aggregate demand 154
2.3 Geographical allocation of demand 154
2.4 Attractiveness index 155
2.5 Bilateral demand 155
2.6 Equilibrium 155
2.7 Alternative theoretical foundations of the extended gravity model 157
3 The extended gravity model 160
3.1 Comparison of the extended gravity model to the traditional gravity model 161
3.2 Indices of the geo-economic position 161
3.3 Substitution structure 162
3.4 Econometric issues 163
4 Estimation results 164
4.1 Comparison of the gravity model with the EGM 165
4.2 Interpretation of the EGM parameter estimates 167
4.3 Individual parameter estimates 168
4.4 The indices of the geo-economic position 171
5 Conclusions 172
REFERENCES 173
APPENDIX A : EXPLANATION OF THE DATA USED 175
APPENDIX B : ESTIMATES OF VARIANTS ON THE MAIN MODELS 177
Part II Distance in the gravity model 179
6 Illusory border effects: Distance mismeasurement infiates estimates of home bias in trade 181
1 Introduction 181
2 Prior measures of distance 183
2.1 Between-unit distances 183
2.2 Within-unit distances 184
3 Effective distances between \u201cstates\u201d 187
4 Geometric examples 189
4.1 States along a line 189
4.2 States on a plane 191
5 Estimating border effects 193
6 Empirical applications 198
6.1 The impact of \u201cborders\u201d within the United States 199
6.2 The impact of borders within the European Union 201
6.3 Transportability 201
7 Conclusion 205
REFERENCES 206
7 Trade costs, market access, and economic geography: Why the empirical specification of trade costs matters 209
1 Introduction 209
2 Trade costs and the wage equation in NEG 212
2.1 The basic NEG model 212
2.2 Estimating the wage equation 215
2.2.1 Direct non-linear estimation of the wage equation 215
2.2.2 Two-step linear estimation of the wage equation making use of trade data 216
3 The trade cost function 218
i. Functional form 220
ii. Variables included 220
4 Data 226
5 Estimation results: trade costs and market access 226
5.1 Inferring trade costs from trade flows 227
5.2 Varying trade costs and the impact on market access 230
5.3 Trade costs and the spatial reach of an income shock in Belgium 232
6 Conclusions 236
REFERENCES 237
APPENDIX 239
8 Intangible barriers to international trade: A sectoral approach 240
1 Introduction 240
2 The gravity model in international trade 242
3 Multidimensional distance: institutions, culture, and trade 244
3.1 The network view on trade 244
3.2 Insecurity of property and trade 246
3.3 Cultural differences as trade barrier 246
4 Data and estimation method 248
4.1 Trade data 248
4.2 Multidimensional distance 250
4.3 Estimation method 251
5 Results 253
5.1 An update of Rauch (1999) 253
5.2 The impact of cultural and institutional distance 257
5.3 More detailed product groups 260
6 Conclusions 262
REFERENCES 263
APPENDIX: DESCRIPTION OF THE DATASET 265
Part III Specific applications 269
9 International environmental arrangements and international commerce 271
1 Introduction 271
2 Literature survey 272
3 Theory 273
3.1 Pure reputation model 273
3.2 Solving the model 275
3.2.1 Proposition 1 278
3.3 Adding punishment via international environmental arrangements 278
3.3.1 Proposition 2 279
4 Empirics 279
4.1 Specification 280
4.2 Data 282
4.3 Results 283
5 Summary 286
REFERENCES 286
APPENDIX 287
9.A.1 Proof of proposition 1 287
9.A.2 Proof of proposition 2 288
9.A.2.1 Conditions for separating equilibrium 288
10 Diplomatic relations and trade reorientation in transition countries 294
1 Introduction 294
2 The trade transition 296
3 Data and methodology 299
3.1 Discussion of data 303
4 Results 304
5 Conclusions 306
REFERENCES 308
APPENDIX: DERIVATION OF EQUATION 10.2 309
11 Economic and financial integration and the rise of cross-border M&As 312
1 Introduction 312
2 Cross-border M&As 316
3 Methodology and estimation strategy 321
4 Estimation results 323
4.1 Baseline estimations 323
4.2 Baseline estimation sensitivity analysis 326
4.2.1 US interest rates 326
4.2.2 Market structure 326
4.2.3 Macro-economic distortions 327
4.3 Market potential 327
4.4 The baseline model over time 328
5 Conclusions 330
REFERENCES 331
APPENDIX A : REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF CROSS-BORDER M&AS 334
APPENDIX B : BASELINE ESTIMATIONS WITH DIFFERENT FINANCIAL MARKET VARIABLES 335
12 The impact of economic geography on GDP per capita in OECD countries 339
1 Introduction and main findings 339
2 General empirical framework 341
3 Economic distance 344
3.1 Why proximity matters 345
3.2 The distance of OECD countries to world markets 346
3.2.1 Population density, sum of distances, and market potential 346
3.2.2 Market and supplier access 347
3.2.3 Comparison of the different measures 349
3.3 Empirical analysis: augmented Solow model and proximity 352
4 Transport costs 359
4.1 Evolution of transport and telecommunications cost indices 360
4.2 Impact of transport costs on openness to trade and GDP per capita 361
5 Conclusion and policy implications 366
REFERENCES 367
Index 371
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