中东欧与欧盟The Central and Eastern European Countries and the European Union

List of figures
List of tables
Notes on the contributors
Acknowledgments
Introduction
MICHAEL ARTIS, ANINDYA BANERJEE AND
MASSIMILIANO MARCELLINO
1 New Member States: macroeconomic outlook and forecasts
　EMILIO ROSSI AND ZBYSZKO TABERNACKI
　　1.1 The recent economic recovery in the new Member States
1.2 Inflation's temporary resurgence not yet a concern
1.3 The rush to the euro: a dose of realism
1.4 Fiscal challenges and interest rate convergence
1.5 Country overviews
　　 1.5.1 Poland's expansion to continue beyond 2005
　　 1.5.2 The Czech Republic to rely on external demandand investment
　　 1.5.3 Hungary's manufacturing sector and investment are driving accelerated growth
　　 1.5.4 Fiscal reforms place Slovakia as the most progressive country in Central Europe
　　 1.5.5 Slovenia looks to net exports to boost growth
　　 1.5.6 The Baltic again to set the pace for economic growth among the new Member States
　　 1.5.7 Cyprus and Malta
2　The asymmetric impact of enlargement on old and　new Member States: a general equilibrium approach
　MOHAMED HEDI BCHIR, LIONEL FONTAGNIE AND　PAOLO ZANGHIERI
　 2.1 Introduction
　 2.2 The pre-enlargement situation
　 2.3 General equilibrium dimensions of enlargement
2.4 From trade liberalization to deep economic integration
　　　2.4.1 'Trade liberalization'
　　 2.4.2 'Market integration'
　　 2.4.3 'Accession'
　　 2.4.4 Comparison of dynamics across scenarios
2.5 Comparison with other studies using a similar methodology
　 2.6 Conclusions
　References
3　Changes in the spatial distribution patterns of European regional activity: the enlargements of the mid-1980s and 2004
　TONI MORA, ESTHER VAY AND JORDI SURINACH
　 3.1 Introduction
3.2 Spatial agglomeration models: theoretical aspects and empirical evidence
　　 3.2.1 What have we learned from spatial models?
　　 3.2.2 What does the previous evidence of empirical spatial specialisation suggest?
3.3 Defining data and indices
3.4 Analysis of the distribution of the evolution of spatial activity, 1985 95
3.5 The effects of the new enlargement on the distribution of activity: from EU-15 to EU-27
3.6 Conclusions
　References
4 Forecasting macroeconomic variables for the new Member States
　ANINDYA BANERJEE, MASSIMILIANO MARCELLINO AND IGOR MASTEN
　 4.1 Introduction
4.2 Methodology
　　 4.2.1 Forecasting models
　　 4.2.2 Forecast comparison
4.3 The data
4.4 Forecasting results
　　　4.4.1 The Czech Republic
　 4.4.2 Hungary
　 4.4.3 Poland
　 4.4.4 Slovakia
　 4.4.5 Slovenia
　 4.4.6 The role of Euro area information
　 4.4.7 I(2) prices, wages and money
4.5 Conclusions
References
5 The cyclial experience of the new Member States
6 Demand and supply shocks in the new Member States
7 Monetary transmission in the new Member States
8 Promoting fiscal restraint in three Central European
9 Current account dynamics in the new member States
10 Challenges to banking sector stability in selected new Member States
11 Infrastructure investments as a tool for regional
12 TFP,costs and public infrastructure:an equivocal relationship
13 Regional pllicies after the EU enlargement
Index