张志超(1951～ ),天津市人,南开大学国际经济学系任教,并担任天津市世界经济学会理事兼副秘书长

序＆谷书堂
内容提要
1 导言
2 发展中国家债务经济的过渡问题
2．1 关于LDC3债务经济能否顺利过渡的争论
2．1．1 问题的由来
2．1．2 肯定的意见
2．1．3 否定的意见
2．1．4 简要评论
2．2 对国际资本的再认识
2．2．1 国际资本的主要特点
2．2．2 变化了的国际资本性质
2．2．3 国际资本的历史作用
2．3 LDC3债务危机透视
2．3．1 债务危机的实质和80年代债务危机的原因
2．3．2 债务危机促进政策转化的作用
2．3．3 从债务危机看国际经济合作
3 外债作用于经济增长的基本原理
3．1 政策困境与外债发生
3．1．1 卡莱茨基经济增长模型
3．1．2 LDC3政府面临的政策困境及解决办法
3．1．3 结合外债的经济增长过程的一般意义
3．2 积累与消费的矛盾及其克服
3．2．1 储蓄限制的增长—政策困境之一
3．2．2 有助于政策走出困境的外债
3．3 外汇收支的矛盾及其克服
3．3．1 外汇限制的增长——政策困境之二
3．3．2 打破上述政策困境的逆差战略
3．4 结构主义的缺口理论
3．5 债务动态和债务周期
3．5．1 债务动态的一般特点
3．5．2 债务周期
4 债务经济的实践与政府作用
4．1 LDC3对缺口理论的实践
4．1．1 80年代以前LDC3债务经济实绩
4．1．2近10年来LDC3债务经济实况
4．1．3 错误理解缺口理论和严重卷入国际债务
4．2 债务经济政策比较
4．2．1 阿根廷类型的债务经济政策
4．2．2 韩国类型的债务经济政策
4．2．3 LDC3健全债务经济政策的一般标准
4．3 政府在债务经济中的作用
4．3．1 有效控制财政赤字
4．3．2 严格把握债务资金的使用方向和使用效率
4．3．3 逐步扩大公共储蓄规模
4．3．4 积极发展对外贸易
4．3．5 小结
5 中国债务经济的发展
5．1 1949——1979年的中国债务经济
5．1．1 80年代以前国际债务关系的沿革
5．1．2 经验和教训
5．2 80年代的中国债务经济
5．2．1 80年代对外债务关系发展的一般状况
5．2．2 可观察到的一些问题
5．2．3 就外债运用对经济增长和稳定作用所做的估计
5．2．4 80年代中国债务经济的主要特征
6 90年代的中国债务战略与规划
6．1 国际信用价值理论
6．1．1 国际商业银行贷款政策的基本依据
6．1．2 外债、进出口和经济增长的关系
6．1．3 90年代中国的国际债务战略
6．2 适度债务规模理论
6．2．1 确定外债规模的MR=MC模型
6．2．2 适度外债规模确定的实用办法
6．3 90年代的债务规划
6．3．1 几个不确定因素
6．3．2 90年代债务规模预测
7 健全债务经济的财政政策
7．1 变化中的财政政策
7．1．1 对80年代中央财政收支变化的分析
7．1．2 实行公共赤字管理的一般意义和现实基础
7．2 审慎财政政策中的公共赤字管理
7．2．1 公共赤字管理的主要原则
7．2．2公共赤字管理的中心任务
7．3 关于公共赤字维持能力的几个理论问题
7．3．1 政府决策行为的性质
7．3．2 增长、 投资与偿债的统一
7．3．3 政策的调整与稳定
8 债务经济之资源转移政策
8．1旨在提高国际收支结构优势的发展与贸易政策
8．1．1 发展政策、贸易政策与国际收支结构优势的国际比较
8．1．2 对80年代我国国际收支结构优势的估计
8．1．3 90年代势在必行的发展政策调整
8．2 90年代的资源转移政策
8．2．1 产业技术政策
8．2．2 汇率政策与鼓励出口、限制进口
8．2．3 转移政策强调债务管理
9 结束语——论债务经济过程的公共行政管理
主要参考文献
（I）中文论著
（II）英文论著
后记
Preface＆Gu Shu-Tang
Abstract
1 Introduction
2 Issues Concerning Transition of LDC S Debt Economy
2．1 Controversy with regard to Transition of LDC s Debt Economy
2．1．1 Origin of controversy
2．1．2 Positive opinions
2．1．3 Negative opinions
2．1．4 A brief comment
2．2 A Corrected Understanding of International Capital
2．2．1 Its main characteristics
2．2．2 Its changing nature
2．2．3 Its historical role
2．3 Comprehensive Analysis of LDC s Debt Crisis
2．3．1 The crux of debt crisis and its causes in the 1980s
2．3．2 The role of debt crisis in stimulating policy reform
2．3．3 Debt crisis and internationally economic co-operation
3 Fundamentals of External Debt s Acting on Economy Growth
3．1 Policy Dilemma and Debt Occurrence
3．1．1 Kaleck s model of ectonomic development
3．1．2 The dilemma faced by LDC s governments and its way out
3．1．3 The significance of growth-cum-debt process
3．2 Conflict between Accumlation and Consumption , and Its Overcoming
3．2．1 Saving-constraint grouwth: the first dilemma for policymakers
3．2．2 The role of foreign debt in getting rid of thd dilemma
3．3 Conflict between Foreign Exchange Revenue and Payment , and Its Overcoming
3．3．1 Foreign-exchange-constraint growth: the second dilemma for policymakers
3．3．2 The role of deficit strategy in getting rid of the dilemma
3．4 Structuralist Gap Theory
3．5 Dynamics and Cycle of Debt
3．5．1 Dynamics of debt; its general characteristics
3．5．2 The cycle of debt
4 Practice of LDC s debt Economy and Governmental Role
4．1 LDC s Putting Gap Theory to Work
4．1．1 Performance of LDC s debt economy before 1980 s
4．1．2 Performance of LDC s debt economy in the latest decade
4．1．3 Misunderstanding of the gap-theory and serious involvement of international debt
4．2 Tow Different Kinds of Debt Policies
4．2．1 Debt policy of Argentina
4．2．2 Debt policy of S.Korea
4．2．3 Criteria of a sound debt economy of LDC s
4．3 Governmental Role in Debt Economy
4．3．1 Effective control of financial deficit
4．3．2 Strict manipulation of the uses of debt fund
4．3．3 Gradual expansion of public savings
4．3．4 Positive development of forign trade
4．3．5 Summary
5 Development of China s Debt Economy
5．1 China s Debt Economy from 1948 to 1979
5．1．1 Evolution of international debt relation in China before 1980 s
5．1．2 Experiences and lessons
5．2 China s Debt Economy in 1990 s
5．2．1 Development of international debt relation in 1980 s
5．2．2 Some observable problems
5．2．3 External debt s inpact on economic growth and stability
5．2．4 Main characteristics of China s debt economy in the 1980 s
6 China s Debt Strategy and Programme in 1990 s
6．1 Theory of International Creditworth iness
6．1．1 Basis for loaning Policy of International Commercial banks
6．1．2 External debt,foreign trade and economic growth
6．1．3 China s International debt Strategy in the 1990 s
6．2 Appropriate Scale of External Debt
6．2．1 The MR=MC model in determining size of external debt
6．2．2 Determining a moderate size of external debt: some empirical methods
6．3 Debt Programme in 1990 s
6．3．1 Some uncertain factors
6．3．2 The siza of exteranl debt in the 1990 s : forecast
7 Fiscal Policy in Perfect Debt Economy
7．1 Changeable Fiscal Policy
7．1．1 An analysis of the finacial situation of central government in the 1980 s
7．1．2 Management of public deficit: its significance and base
7．2 Management of Public Deficit in Practising Discretional Fiscal Policy
7．2．1 Management of public deficit: its main principles
7．2．2 Management of public deficit : its main task
7．3 Issues about Keeping Public Deficit under Control
7．3．1 Nature of governments policy-making behavior
7．3．2 Growth , investment and payment of debt
7．3．3 Policy adjustment and stability
8 Transfer Policy in Debt Economy
8．1 Development and Trade Policies Aimed at Increasing Structural Superiority of Balance of Payment
8．1．1 Development policy, trade policy and structure of balance of payment : an international comparison
8．1．2 An estimation of China s structure of balance of payment in the 1980 s
8．1．3 Necessary adjustment of development policy in the 1990 s
8．2 Transter Policy in 1990 s
8．2．1 Industrial and technological policies
8．2．2 Foreign exchange policy, export promotion and import restriction
8．2．3 Transfer policy emphasizing debt management
9 Concluding Remarks——On public administration in the process of debt economy
(I) Bibliography in Chinese
(II) Bibliography In English
Postscript