Managerial statistics /
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作 者：S.Christian Albright, Wayne L. Winston and Christopher J. Zappe with case studies by Peter Kolesar.
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ISBN：9780534389314
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简介
This text/CD-ROM package, designed to be used in courses for business majors, takes an example-driven, spreadsheet-based approach, emphasizing the analysis of data and the interpretation of important information on which to base business decisions. Material is offered within a conventional business statistics format, with chapters on describing data, probability, distributions, sampling, hypothesis testing, regression analysis, and time series analysis and forecasting. The CD-ROM contains StatPro, a statistical add-in for Microsoft Excel, plus tutorials, and data files for problems and cases. Albright teaches business at Indiana University. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)
目录
Preface p. xv
Introduction to Managerial Statistics p. 2
Introduction p. 4
An Overview of the Book p. 6
Excel versus Stand-alone Statistical Software p. 11
A Sampling of Examples p. 12
Conclusion p. 21
Case Study: Entertainment on a Cruise Ship p. 22
Describing Data: Graphs and Tables p. 24
Introduction p. 26
Basic Concepts p. 27
Frequency Tables and Histograms p. 31
Analyzing Relationships with Scatterplots p. 42
Time Series Plots p. 46
Exploring Data with Pivot Tables p. 51
Pivot Table Changes in Excel 2000 p. 60
Conclusion p. 63
Case Study: Customer Arrivals at Bank98 p. 70
Case Study: Automobile Production and Purchases p. 70
Case Study: Saving, Spending, and Social Climbing p. 71
Describing Data: Summary Measures p. 72
Introduction p. 74
Measures of Central Location p. 74
Quartiles and Percentiles p. 76
Minimum, Maximum, and Range p. 77
Measures of Variability: Variance and Standard Deviation p. 78
Obtaining Summary Measures with Add-Ins p. 82
Measures of Association: Covariance and Correlation p. 87
Describing Data Sets with Boxplots p. 91
Applying the Tools p. 95
Conclusion p. 112
Case Study: The Dow-Jones Averages p. 120
Case Study: Other Market Indexes p. 122
Getting the Right Data in Excel p. 124
Introduction p. 126
Cleaning the Data p. 127
Using Excel's AutoFilter p. 136
Complex Queries with the Advanced Filter p. 143
Importing External Data from Access p. 150
Creating Pivot Tables from External Data p. 162
Web Queries p. 165
Conclusion p. 175
Case Study: EduToys, Inc. p. 176
Probability and Probability Distributions p. 178
Introduction p. 180
Probability Essentials p. 181
Distribution of a Single Random Variable p. 187
An Introduction to Simulation p. 191
Subjective Versus Objective Probabilities p. 196
Derived Probability Distributions p. 198
Distribution of Two Random Variables: Scenario Approach p. 202
Distribution of Two Random Variables: Joint Probability Approach p. 209
Independent Random Variables p. 219
Weighted Sums of Random Variables p. 224
Conclusion p. 231
Case Study: Simpson's Paradox p. 240
Normal, Binomial, and Poisson Distributions p. 242
Introduction p. 244
The Normal Distribution p. 245
Applications of the Normal Distribution p. 254
The Binomial Distribution p. 266
Applications of the Binomial Distribution p. 270
The Poisson Distribution p. 282
Fitting a Probability Distribution to Data: BestFit p. 286
Conclusion p. 289
Case Study: EuroWatch Company p. 295
Case Study: Cashing in on the Lottery p. 296
Decision Making Under Uncertainty p. 298
Introduction p. 300
Elements of a Decision Analysis p. 301
The PrecisionTree Add-In p. 312
Introduction to Influence Diagrams p. 322
More Single-Stage Examples p. 328
Multistage Decision Problems p. 338
Bayes' Rule p. 347
Incorporating Attitudes Toward Risk p. 355
Conclusion p. 363
Case Study: Jogger Shoe Company p. 374
Case Study: Westhouser Paper Company p. 374
Sampling and Sampling Distributions p. 376
Introduction p. 378
Sampling Terminology p. 378
Methods for Selecting Random Samples p. 379
An Introduction to Estimation p. 395
Conclusion p. 412
Case Study: Sampling from Videocassette Renters p. 421
Confidence Interval Estimation p. 422
Introduction p. 424
Sampling Distributions p. 425
Confidence Interval for a Mean p. 429
Confidence Interval for a Total p. 434
Confidence Interval for a Proportion p. 437
Confidence Interval for a Standard Deviation p. 442
Confidence Interval for the Difference Between Means p. 446
Confidence Interval for the Difference Between Proportions p. 458
Controlling Confidence Interval Length p. 466
Conclusion p. 473
Case Study: Harrigan University Admissions p. 480
Case Study: Employee Retention at D and Y p. 481
Case Study: Delivery Times at SnowPea Restaurant p. 482
Case Study: The Bodfish Lot Cruise p. 483
Hypothesis Testing p. 486
Introduction p. 488
Concepts in Hypothesis Testing p. 489
Hypothesis Tests for a Population Mean p. 495
Hypothesis Tests for Other Parameters p. 505
Tests for Normality p. 526
Chi-Square Test for Independence p. 532
Conclusion p. 537
Case Study: Regression Toward the Mean p. 542
Case Study: Baseball Statistics p. 543
Case Study: The Wichita Anti-Drunk Driving Advertising Campaign p. 543
Statistical Process Control p. 546
Introduction p. 549
Deming's 14 Points p. 550
Basic Ideas Behind Control Charts p. 553
Control Charts for Variables p. 555
Control Charts for Attributes p. 575
Process Capability p. 583
Conclusion p. 594
Case Study: The Lamination Process at Intergalactica p. 599
Case Study: Paper Production for Fornax at the Pluto Mill p. 601
Analysis of Variance and Experimental Design p. 608
Introduction p. 610
One-Way ANOVA p. 613
The Multiple Comparison Problem p. 625
Two-Way ANOVA p. 631
More About Experimental Design p. 643
Conclusion p. 652
Case Study: Krentz Appraisal Services p. 653
Regression Analysis: Estimating Relationships p. 654
Introduction p. 656
Scatterplots: Graphing Relationships p. 658
Correlations: Indicators of Linear Relationships p. 667
Simple Linear Regression p. 669
Multiple Regression p. 679
Modeling Possibilities p. 685
Validation of the Fit p. 711
Conclusion p. 713
Case Study: Quantity Discounts at the FirmChair Company p. 720
Case Study: Housing Price Structure in MidCity p. 720
Case Study: Demand for French Bread at Howie's p. 721
Case Study: Investing for Retirement p. 721
Regression Analysis: Statistical Inference p. 722
Introduction p. 724
The Statistical Model p. 725
Inferences About the Regression Coefficients p. 728
Multicollinearity p. 734
Include/Exclude Decisions p. 738
Stepwise Regression p. 743
A Test for the Overall Fit: The ANOVA Table p. 748
The Partial F Test p. 752
Outliers p. 761
Violations of Regression Assumptions p. 767
Prediction p. 771
Conclusion p. 779
Case Study: The Artsy Corporation p. 790
Case Study: Heating Oil at Dupree Fuels Company p. 791
Case Study: Developing a Flexible Budget at the Gunderson Plant p. 793
Case Study: Forecasting Overhead at Wagner Printers p. 794
Discriminant Analysis and Logistic Regression p. 797
Introduction p. 799
Discriminant Analysis p. 800
Logistic Regression p. 819
Choosing Between the Two Methods p. 834
Conclusion p. 834
Case Study: Understanding Cereal Brand Preferences p. 835
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting p. 836
Introduction p. 838
Forecasting Methods: An Overview p. 839
Random Series p. 843
The Random Walk Model p. 853
Autoregression Models p. 857
Regression-Based Trend Models p. 863
Moving Averages p. 870
Exponential Smoothing p. 876
Deseasonalizing: The Ratio-to-Moving-Averages Method p. 890
Estimating Seasonality with Regression p. 894
Econometric Models p. 899
Conclusion p. 900
Case Study: Arrivals at the Credit Union p. 904
Case Study: Forecasting Weekly Sales at Amanta p. 904
Statistical Reporting p. 906
Introduction p. 907
Suggestions for Good Statistical Report Writing p. 908
Examples of Statistical Reports p. 913
Conclusion p. 925
References p. 926
Index p. 929
Introduction to Managerial Statistics p. 2
Introduction p. 4
An Overview of the Book p. 6
Excel versus Stand-alone Statistical Software p. 11
A Sampling of Examples p. 12
Conclusion p. 21
Case Study: Entertainment on a Cruise Ship p. 22
Describing Data: Graphs and Tables p. 24
Introduction p. 26
Basic Concepts p. 27
Frequency Tables and Histograms p. 31
Analyzing Relationships with Scatterplots p. 42
Time Series Plots p. 46
Exploring Data with Pivot Tables p. 51
Pivot Table Changes in Excel 2000 p. 60
Conclusion p. 63
Case Study: Customer Arrivals at Bank98 p. 70
Case Study: Automobile Production and Purchases p. 70
Case Study: Saving, Spending, and Social Climbing p. 71
Describing Data: Summary Measures p. 72
Introduction p. 74
Measures of Central Location p. 74
Quartiles and Percentiles p. 76
Minimum, Maximum, and Range p. 77
Measures of Variability: Variance and Standard Deviation p. 78
Obtaining Summary Measures with Add-Ins p. 82
Measures of Association: Covariance and Correlation p. 87
Describing Data Sets with Boxplots p. 91
Applying the Tools p. 95
Conclusion p. 112
Case Study: The Dow-Jones Averages p. 120
Case Study: Other Market Indexes p. 122
Getting the Right Data in Excel p. 124
Introduction p. 126
Cleaning the Data p. 127
Using Excel's AutoFilter p. 136
Complex Queries with the Advanced Filter p. 143
Importing External Data from Access p. 150
Creating Pivot Tables from External Data p. 162
Web Queries p. 165
Conclusion p. 175
Case Study: EduToys, Inc. p. 176
Probability and Probability Distributions p. 178
Introduction p. 180
Probability Essentials p. 181
Distribution of a Single Random Variable p. 187
An Introduction to Simulation p. 191
Subjective Versus Objective Probabilities p. 196
Derived Probability Distributions p. 198
Distribution of Two Random Variables: Scenario Approach p. 202
Distribution of Two Random Variables: Joint Probability Approach p. 209
Independent Random Variables p. 219
Weighted Sums of Random Variables p. 224
Conclusion p. 231
Case Study: Simpson's Paradox p. 240
Normal, Binomial, and Poisson Distributions p. 242
Introduction p. 244
The Normal Distribution p. 245
Applications of the Normal Distribution p. 254
The Binomial Distribution p. 266
Applications of the Binomial Distribution p. 270
The Poisson Distribution p. 282
Fitting a Probability Distribution to Data: BestFit p. 286
Conclusion p. 289
Case Study: EuroWatch Company p. 295
Case Study: Cashing in on the Lottery p. 296
Decision Making Under Uncertainty p. 298
Introduction p. 300
Elements of a Decision Analysis p. 301
The PrecisionTree Add-In p. 312
Introduction to Influence Diagrams p. 322
More Single-Stage Examples p. 328
Multistage Decision Problems p. 338
Bayes' Rule p. 347
Incorporating Attitudes Toward Risk p. 355
Conclusion p. 363
Case Study: Jogger Shoe Company p. 374
Case Study: Westhouser Paper Company p. 374
Sampling and Sampling Distributions p. 376
Introduction p. 378
Sampling Terminology p. 378
Methods for Selecting Random Samples p. 379
An Introduction to Estimation p. 395
Conclusion p. 412
Case Study: Sampling from Videocassette Renters p. 421
Confidence Interval Estimation p. 422
Introduction p. 424
Sampling Distributions p. 425
Confidence Interval for a Mean p. 429
Confidence Interval for a Total p. 434
Confidence Interval for a Proportion p. 437
Confidence Interval for a Standard Deviation p. 442
Confidence Interval for the Difference Between Means p. 446
Confidence Interval for the Difference Between Proportions p. 458
Controlling Confidence Interval Length p. 466
Conclusion p. 473
Case Study: Harrigan University Admissions p. 480
Case Study: Employee Retention at D and Y p. 481
Case Study: Delivery Times at SnowPea Restaurant p. 482
Case Study: The Bodfish Lot Cruise p. 483
Hypothesis Testing p. 486
Introduction p. 488
Concepts in Hypothesis Testing p. 489
Hypothesis Tests for a Population Mean p. 495
Hypothesis Tests for Other Parameters p. 505
Tests for Normality p. 526
Chi-Square Test for Independence p. 532
Conclusion p. 537
Case Study: Regression Toward the Mean p. 542
Case Study: Baseball Statistics p. 543
Case Study: The Wichita Anti-Drunk Driving Advertising Campaign p. 543
Statistical Process Control p. 546
Introduction p. 549
Deming's 14 Points p. 550
Basic Ideas Behind Control Charts p. 553
Control Charts for Variables p. 555
Control Charts for Attributes p. 575
Process Capability p. 583
Conclusion p. 594
Case Study: The Lamination Process at Intergalactica p. 599
Case Study: Paper Production for Fornax at the Pluto Mill p. 601
Analysis of Variance and Experimental Design p. 608
Introduction p. 610
One-Way ANOVA p. 613
The Multiple Comparison Problem p. 625
Two-Way ANOVA p. 631
More About Experimental Design p. 643
Conclusion p. 652
Case Study: Krentz Appraisal Services p. 653
Regression Analysis: Estimating Relationships p. 654
Introduction p. 656
Scatterplots: Graphing Relationships p. 658
Correlations: Indicators of Linear Relationships p. 667
Simple Linear Regression p. 669
Multiple Regression p. 679
Modeling Possibilities p. 685
Validation of the Fit p. 711
Conclusion p. 713
Case Study: Quantity Discounts at the FirmChair Company p. 720
Case Study: Housing Price Structure in MidCity p. 720
Case Study: Demand for French Bread at Howie's p. 721
Case Study: Investing for Retirement p. 721
Regression Analysis: Statistical Inference p. 722
Introduction p. 724
The Statistical Model p. 725
Inferences About the Regression Coefficients p. 728
Multicollinearity p. 734
Include/Exclude Decisions p. 738
Stepwise Regression p. 743
A Test for the Overall Fit: The ANOVA Table p. 748
The Partial F Test p. 752
Outliers p. 761
Violations of Regression Assumptions p. 767
Prediction p. 771
Conclusion p. 779
Case Study: The Artsy Corporation p. 790
Case Study: Heating Oil at Dupree Fuels Company p. 791
Case Study: Developing a Flexible Budget at the Gunderson Plant p. 793
Case Study: Forecasting Overhead at Wagner Printers p. 794
Discriminant Analysis and Logistic Regression p. 797
Introduction p. 799
Discriminant Analysis p. 800
Logistic Regression p. 819
Choosing Between the Two Methods p. 834
Conclusion p. 834
Case Study: Understanding Cereal Brand Preferences p. 835
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting p. 836
Introduction p. 838
Forecasting Methods: An Overview p. 839
Random Series p. 843
The Random Walk Model p. 853
Autoregression Models p. 857
Regression-Based Trend Models p. 863
Moving Averages p. 870
Exponential Smoothing p. 876
Deseasonalizing: The Ratio-to-Moving-Averages Method p. 890
Estimating Seasonality with Regression p. 894
Econometric Models p. 899
Conclusion p. 900
Case Study: Arrivals at the Credit Union p. 904
Case Study: Forecasting Weekly Sales at Amanta p. 904
Statistical Reporting p. 906
Introduction p. 907
Suggestions for Good Statistical Report Writing p. 908
Examples of Statistical Reports p. 913
Conclusion p. 925
References p. 926
Index p. 929
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