简介
Summary:
Publisher Summary 1
Despite implicating ethnicity in everything from civil war to economic failure, researchers seldom consult psychological research when addressing the most basic question: What is ethnicity? The result is a radical scholarly divide generating contradictory recommendations for solving ethnic conflict. Research into how the human brain actually works demands a revision of existing schools of thought. At its foundation, ethnic identity is a cognitive uncertainty-reduction device with special capacity to exacerbate, but not cause, collective action problems. This produces a new general theory of ethnic conflict that can improve both understanding and practice. A deep study of separatism in the USSR and CIS demonstrates the theory's potential, mobilizing evidence from elite interviews, three local languages, and mass surveys. The outcome is a significant reinterpretation of nationalism's role in the USSR's breakup, which turns out to have been a far more contingent event than commonly recognized. International relations in the CIS are similarly cast in new light.
Publisher Summary 2
Hale examines separatism in the USSR and CIS through a new psychological understanding of ethnic identity.
目录
Cover 1
Half-title 3
Series-title 5
Title 7
Copyright 8
Contents 9
Acknowledgments 11
Note on Transliteration 15
1 Introduction 17
PART I THEORY WITH WORLDWIDE EXAMPLES 27
2 The Need for a Microfoundational 29
Ethnicity-as-conflictual Theories 32
Hard Ethnicity-as-Conflictual Theories: Relative Values 32
Soft Ethnicity-as-Conflictual Theories: Absolute Values 36
Ultrasoft Ethnicity-as-Conflictual Theories: Constructed Values 38
Ethnicity-as-epiphenomenal Theories 41
Conclusion: Moving Beyond Utility Maximization as a Microlevel Theory of Ethnicity 46
3 A Relational Theory 49
Uncertainty reduction as the human drive explaining ethnicity 50
Identity as Points of Personal Reference 50
Identity and the Fundamental Human Drive for Uncertainty Reduction 50
Why Some Aspects of Identity Are More Useful for Uncertainty Reduction than Others 52
The Situational Essence of Identity as an Uncertainty-Reduction Device 54
Explaining Ethnicity as an Especially Useful Uncertainty-Reducing Device 56
Ethnicity as Conceptually Prior to Utility Seeking and Emotional Behavior 63
Functionalism and Consistency with a Theory of Human Evolution 67
Beyond Uncertainty Reduction: Ethnic Politics as the Realm of \ 68
Conclusion 71
4 A Theory of National Separatism in Domestic and Interstate Politics 73
Theories of Separatism and their Assumptions About Ethnicity 74
Ethnicity-as-Conflictual Theories of Separatism 74
Ethnicity-as-Epiphenomenal Theories of Separatism 76
Toward a Theory of Separatism Based on a Relational Approach to Ethnicity 78
A Behavioral Assumption: The Maximization of Life Chances 78
Collective Action Problems, Separatist Politics, and Ethnofederalism 79
A Collective Action Problem as the Driving Force of Separatism 81
The Basic Secession Game 81
The Center's Preferences and Types of Central Governments 83
The Region's Preferences 85
Implications: The Sources of Separatism and Variation in It 88
Ethnicity and Variation in Separatism Over Time and Space 92
Ethnicity 93
Central State Policies 96
Framing 98
Institutionally Mediated Interests 100
International Relations Versus Domestic Politics 103
Conclusion 104
PART II CASE COMPARISONS 107
5 Ethnicity 109
Life Chances and National Identification in the USSR 110
Rejecting the Pure National Consciousness Explanation: Ukraine and Uzbekistan 115
Ukraine in the USSR 116
Uzbekistan in the USSR 119
The Insufficiency of National Consciousness 122
Rejecting Ethnicity-as-epiphenomenal Theories of Separatism: Russia and Belarus 123
The Russian Republic (RSFSR) 124
Belarus 130
Conclusion 132
6 Central State Policies and Separatism 135
The Unilateral Period: March 1985 May 1990 136
The Bilateral Period: June 1990 March 1991 141
The Multilateral Period: April August 1991 145
The Period Of Central Strategy Collapse: August December 1991 149
Taking Stock: Ruling Out Alternative Theories and Posing a Remaining Puzzle 153
7 Framing 156
The Complexity of the Union Issue 157
Gorbachev and the March 1991 Referendum 158
Ukraine: From \ 160
Competing Frames and the March 1991 Referenda 161
Framing the Shift to Independence 163
Supporting Evidence: Elections, Surveys, Insider Testimony 166
Uzbekistan: Framing Unionism 170
Conclusion: Explaining Frames? 173
8 Institutionally Mediated Interests 177
The Relative Importance of Economic and Ethnic Concerns 179
The Relationship Between Elite and Mass Material Interests in Ukraine and Uzbekistan 179
Determining Economic Interests in Union and Secession 184
Ukraine: The Politics of Secession in a Relatively Developed Republic 188
The 1990 Election Campaign 189
The Impact of the 1990 Rada Elections 191
Kravchuk's Shift to a Secession-Facilitating Frame 196
Uzbekistan: The Politics of Union in a Less-Developed Republic 197
Gaining Autonomy 199
Obtaining Subsidies 200
Preserving Union Ties 201
Denouement: The Coup and the Fall of 1991 202
Conclusion 204
9 Ethnicity and International Integration 206
Patterns of Separatism in the Emerging CIS 208
Ukraine: Ethnicity, Economics, and CIS Skepticism 215
Ukrainian Elite and Mass Opinion on the CIS 216
Toward a Civilized Divorce 219
Ukraine and Europe 221
Uzbekistan: Economics, State Building, and CIS Activism 222
Uzbekistan and the Early CIS: Autonomy, Subsidies, and Economic Ties 222
Uzbekistan's Shifts in 1996 and 2005 225
Conclusion 227
10 Quantitative Evidence 232
Theories of Ethnicity and Patterns of Separatism 233
Ethnicity-as-Conflictual Theory 233
Ethnicity-as-Epiphenomenal Theory 234
The Relational Theory of Ethnicity and Separatism 234
A Macrolevel Analysis: Forty-Five Ethnic Regions in the Late USSR 235
Measuring Secessionism 235
The Statistical Model and Interpretation 236
Findings: Correlates of Macrolevel Secessionism 237
individual attitudes to separatism: a multilevel analysis 241
The Variables: Dependent and Independent 242
The Statistical Model and How to Interpret It 243
Findings 244
Ethnicity, Interests, and Separatist Attitudes: A Microlevel Analysis 245
Important Features of the Surveys 246
The Dependent Variable and Statistical Model 246
Findings: Correlates of Microlevel Separatism 247
Conclusion 252
PART III CONCLUSION 255
11 Toward a General Theory of Ethnic Conflict and Solutions 257
The Balance of Evidence 257
Worldwide Patterns of Separatism 263
Extracting a Third Core Argument: A General Theory of Ethnic Conflict? 269
Multiethnic State Failure 270
The Failure or Nonoccurrence of International Integration Projects 272
Deadly Violence within and between States 273
Implications for Policy: Finding Solutions to Ethnic Conflict 278
Index 281
Half-title 3
Series-title 5
Title 7
Copyright 8
Contents 9
Acknowledgments 11
Note on Transliteration 15
1 Introduction 17
PART I THEORY WITH WORLDWIDE EXAMPLES 27
2 The Need for a Microfoundational 29
Ethnicity-as-conflictual Theories 32
Hard Ethnicity-as-Conflictual Theories: Relative Values 32
Soft Ethnicity-as-Conflictual Theories: Absolute Values 36
Ultrasoft Ethnicity-as-Conflictual Theories: Constructed Values 38
Ethnicity-as-epiphenomenal Theories 41
Conclusion: Moving Beyond Utility Maximization as a Microlevel Theory of Ethnicity 46
3 A Relational Theory 49
Uncertainty reduction as the human drive explaining ethnicity 50
Identity as Points of Personal Reference 50
Identity and the Fundamental Human Drive for Uncertainty Reduction 50
Why Some Aspects of Identity Are More Useful for Uncertainty Reduction than Others 52
The Situational Essence of Identity as an Uncertainty-Reduction Device 54
Explaining Ethnicity as an Especially Useful Uncertainty-Reducing Device 56
Ethnicity as Conceptually Prior to Utility Seeking and Emotional Behavior 63
Functionalism and Consistency with a Theory of Human Evolution 67
Beyond Uncertainty Reduction: Ethnic Politics as the Realm of \ 68
Conclusion 71
4 A Theory of National Separatism in Domestic and Interstate Politics 73
Theories of Separatism and their Assumptions About Ethnicity 74
Ethnicity-as-Conflictual Theories of Separatism 74
Ethnicity-as-Epiphenomenal Theories of Separatism 76
Toward a Theory of Separatism Based on a Relational Approach to Ethnicity 78
A Behavioral Assumption: The Maximization of Life Chances 78
Collective Action Problems, Separatist Politics, and Ethnofederalism 79
A Collective Action Problem as the Driving Force of Separatism 81
The Basic Secession Game 81
The Center's Preferences and Types of Central Governments 83
The Region's Preferences 85
Implications: The Sources of Separatism and Variation in It 88
Ethnicity and Variation in Separatism Over Time and Space 92
Ethnicity 93
Central State Policies 96
Framing 98
Institutionally Mediated Interests 100
International Relations Versus Domestic Politics 103
Conclusion 104
PART II CASE COMPARISONS 107
5 Ethnicity 109
Life Chances and National Identification in the USSR 110
Rejecting the Pure National Consciousness Explanation: Ukraine and Uzbekistan 115
Ukraine in the USSR 116
Uzbekistan in the USSR 119
The Insufficiency of National Consciousness 122
Rejecting Ethnicity-as-epiphenomenal Theories of Separatism: Russia and Belarus 123
The Russian Republic (RSFSR) 124
Belarus 130
Conclusion 132
6 Central State Policies and Separatism 135
The Unilateral Period: March 1985 May 1990 136
The Bilateral Period: June 1990 March 1991 141
The Multilateral Period: April August 1991 145
The Period Of Central Strategy Collapse: August December 1991 149
Taking Stock: Ruling Out Alternative Theories and Posing a Remaining Puzzle 153
7 Framing 156
The Complexity of the Union Issue 157
Gorbachev and the March 1991 Referendum 158
Ukraine: From \ 160
Competing Frames and the March 1991 Referenda 161
Framing the Shift to Independence 163
Supporting Evidence: Elections, Surveys, Insider Testimony 166
Uzbekistan: Framing Unionism 170
Conclusion: Explaining Frames? 173
8 Institutionally Mediated Interests 177
The Relative Importance of Economic and Ethnic Concerns 179
The Relationship Between Elite and Mass Material Interests in Ukraine and Uzbekistan 179
Determining Economic Interests in Union and Secession 184
Ukraine: The Politics of Secession in a Relatively Developed Republic 188
The 1990 Election Campaign 189
The Impact of the 1990 Rada Elections 191
Kravchuk's Shift to a Secession-Facilitating Frame 196
Uzbekistan: The Politics of Union in a Less-Developed Republic 197
Gaining Autonomy 199
Obtaining Subsidies 200
Preserving Union Ties 201
Denouement: The Coup and the Fall of 1991 202
Conclusion 204
9 Ethnicity and International Integration 206
Patterns of Separatism in the Emerging CIS 208
Ukraine: Ethnicity, Economics, and CIS Skepticism 215
Ukrainian Elite and Mass Opinion on the CIS 216
Toward a Civilized Divorce 219
Ukraine and Europe 221
Uzbekistan: Economics, State Building, and CIS Activism 222
Uzbekistan and the Early CIS: Autonomy, Subsidies, and Economic Ties 222
Uzbekistan's Shifts in 1996 and 2005 225
Conclusion 227
10 Quantitative Evidence 232
Theories of Ethnicity and Patterns of Separatism 233
Ethnicity-as-Conflictual Theory 233
Ethnicity-as-Epiphenomenal Theory 234
The Relational Theory of Ethnicity and Separatism 234
A Macrolevel Analysis: Forty-Five Ethnic Regions in the Late USSR 235
Measuring Secessionism 235
The Statistical Model and Interpretation 236
Findings: Correlates of Macrolevel Secessionism 237
individual attitudes to separatism: a multilevel analysis 241
The Variables: Dependent and Independent 242
The Statistical Model and How to Interpret It 243
Findings 244
Ethnicity, Interests, and Separatist Attitudes: A Microlevel Analysis 245
Important Features of the Surveys 246
The Dependent Variable and Statistical Model 246
Findings: Correlates of Microlevel Separatism 247
Conclusion 252
PART III CONCLUSION 255
11 Toward a General Theory of Ethnic Conflict and Solutions 257
The Balance of Evidence 257
Worldwide Patterns of Separatism 263
Extracting a Third Core Argument: A General Theory of Ethnic Conflict? 269
Multiethnic State Failure 270
The Failure or Nonoccurrence of International Integration Projects 272
Deadly Violence within and between States 273
Implications for Policy: Finding Solutions to Ethnic Conflict 278
Index 281
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