建模与应用 动态交通流的随机演化

1 Introduction1.1  Motivation1.2  Objectives1.3  Contributions1.4  Organization2 Literature Review2.1  Introduction2.2  Historical Development of Traffic Flow Theory2.2.1  Macroscopic Modeling2.2.2  Mesoscopic Modeling2.2.3  Microscopic Modeling2.2.4  Stochastic Modeling2.3  Probabilistic Headway/Spacing Distributions2.3.1  Simple Univariable Distributions2.3.2  Compositional Distributions2.3.3  Mixed Distributions2.3.4  Random Matrix Model2.4  Summary3 Empirical Observations of Stochastic and Dynamic Evolutions of Traffic Flow3.1  Introduction3.2  Characteristics of Headway/Spacing/Velocity3.3  Congested Platoon Oscillations3.4  Time-Frequency Properties3.5  Summary4 A Markov Model Based on Headway/Spacing Distributions4.1  Introduction4.2  A Markov Model for Headway/Spacing Distributions4.2.1  Background4.2.2  Markov-Process Simulation Models4.2.3  Simulation Results4.2.4  Discussions4.3  Asymmetric Stochastic Tau Theory in Car-Following4.3.1  Asymmetric Stochastic Extension of the Tau Theory4.3.2  Testing Results4.3.3  Discussions5 Stochastic Fundamental Diagram Based on Headway/Spacing Distributions5.1  Introduction5.2  Newell's Simplified Model and Its Stochastic Extension5.3  The Homogeneous Platoon Model5.3.1  Basic Idea5.3.2  Summation of Lognormal Random Variables5.3.3  Average Headway Distribution5.3.4  Model Validation5.3.5  Sensitivity Analysis5.4  The Heterogeneous Platoon Model5.4.1  Average Headway Distribution5.4.2  Validation5.4.3  Boundaries of Congested Flows5.5  Summary6 Traffic Flow Breakdown Model Based on Headway/Spacing Distributions6.1  Introduction6.2  Nonparametric Lifetime Statistics Approach6.3  Queueing Models for Breakdown Probability6.3.1  Backgrounds6.3.2  Some Previous Models6.3.3  G/G/1 Queueing Model6.3.4  Discussions6.3.5  Model Validation6.3.6  Summary6.4  Phase Diagram Analysis6.4.1  Backgrounds6.4.2  The Spatial-Temporal Queueing Model6.4.3  The Analytical Solution for Phase Diagram6.4.4  Numerical Example6.5  Discussions7 Conclusions and Future WorkAppendix A: Linear Stability Analysis of the Higher-Order Macroscopic ModelAppendix B: Linear Stability Analysis of the Multi-Anticipative Car-Following ModelsReferencesIndex