简介
There are many misconceptions about the future of global energy often presented as fact by the media, politicians, business leaders, activists, and even scientists_wasting time and money and hampering the development of progressive energy policies. Energy Myths and Realities: Bringing Science to the Energy Policy Debate debunks the most common fallacies to make way for a constructive, scientific approach to the global energy challenge. When will the world run out of oil? Should nuclear energy be adopted on a larger scale? Are ethanol and wind power viable sources of energy for the future? Vaclav Smil advises the public to be wary of exaggerated claims and impossible promises. The global energy transition will be prolonged and expensive_and hinges on the development of an extensive new infrastructure. Established technologies and traditional energy sources are persistent and adaptable enough to see the world through that transition. Energy Myths and Realities brings a scientific perspective to an issue often dominated by groundless assertions, unfounded claims, and uncritical thinking. Before we can create sound energy policies for the future, we must renounce the popular myths that cloud our judgment and impede true progress.
目录
List of Figures p. xi
Key to Units of Measure p. xiii
Introduction p. 1
Lost Opportunities p. 2
Persistent Myths p. 6
Challenging the Myths p. 11
Lessons from the Past p. 15
The Future Belongs to Electric Cars p. 18
Electric-versus Gasoline-Powered Cars p. 19
Recent History of Electric Cars p. 20
Recent Electric Models p. 21
Electric Cars and the Supply of Electricity p. 23
More Efficient Gasoline Engines p. 28
Nuclear Electricity Will Be Too Cheap to Meter p. 31
Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Fission p. 32
Retreat from Nuclear Power p. 35
Hope for Fast Breeder Reactors p. 38
New Case for Nuclear Energy p. 40
Successful Failure p. 42
Soft-Energy Illusions p. 44
Advantages of Soft Energy p. 45
Soft Energy Today p. 47
The Hypercar p. 48
Other Soft-Energy Dreams p. 48
Soft Energy in China p. 49
The "Perfect" Solution p. 52
The Future of Soft and Small Approaches p. 54
Myths in the Headlines p. 55
Running Out: Peak Oil and Its Meaning p. 60
Predictions of Peak Oil Production p. 62
Untapped Resources p. 67
Nonconventional Oil Reserves p. 69
Production, Demand, and Prices p. 72
Countering the Claims of Peak-Oilers p. 76
Sequestration of Carbon Dioxide p. 79
Organic Approaches p. 80
Technical Fixes p. 86
The Energy Penalty on Sequestration p. 93
Liquid Fuels from Plants p. 98
Liquid Fuels for Transportation p. 100
Corn-Based Ethanol p. 101
Sugar Cane-Based Ethanol p. 104
Impacts of Ethanol Production p. 106
Cellulosic Ethanol, "A Huge New Source of Energy" p. 107
Biofuels, An Inappropriate Solution p. 113
Electricity From Wind p. 116
Evolution of Wind Power p. 118
Estimated Potential of Wind Power p. 119
Key Constraints on Wind Power p. 121
Realizing the Potential of Wind Power p. 130
The Pace of Energy Transitions p. 133
Present Realities p. 134
Past Transitions p. 136
Why Energy Transitions Are Gradual p. 140
The Repowering Challenge p. 141
False Analogy p. 143
Conclusion: Lessons and Policy Implications p. 150
Electric Vehicles p. 150
Nuclear Power p. 152
Soft-Energy Conversions p. 155
Peak Oil p. 156
Carbon Sequestration p. 157
Crop-Based Ethanol p. 158
Wind-Powered Electricity Generation p. 159
Energy Transitions p. 160
A Quick Summation p. 162
Notes p. 165
References p. 177
Index p. 197
About the Author p. 213
Key to Units of Measure p. xiii
Introduction p. 1
Lost Opportunities p. 2
Persistent Myths p. 6
Challenging the Myths p. 11
Lessons from the Past p. 15
The Future Belongs to Electric Cars p. 18
Electric-versus Gasoline-Powered Cars p. 19
Recent History of Electric Cars p. 20
Recent Electric Models p. 21
Electric Cars and the Supply of Electricity p. 23
More Efficient Gasoline Engines p. 28
Nuclear Electricity Will Be Too Cheap to Meter p. 31
Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Fission p. 32
Retreat from Nuclear Power p. 35
Hope for Fast Breeder Reactors p. 38
New Case for Nuclear Energy p. 40
Successful Failure p. 42
Soft-Energy Illusions p. 44
Advantages of Soft Energy p. 45
Soft Energy Today p. 47
The Hypercar p. 48
Other Soft-Energy Dreams p. 48
Soft Energy in China p. 49
The "Perfect" Solution p. 52
The Future of Soft and Small Approaches p. 54
Myths in the Headlines p. 55
Running Out: Peak Oil and Its Meaning p. 60
Predictions of Peak Oil Production p. 62
Untapped Resources p. 67
Nonconventional Oil Reserves p. 69
Production, Demand, and Prices p. 72
Countering the Claims of Peak-Oilers p. 76
Sequestration of Carbon Dioxide p. 79
Organic Approaches p. 80
Technical Fixes p. 86
The Energy Penalty on Sequestration p. 93
Liquid Fuels from Plants p. 98
Liquid Fuels for Transportation p. 100
Corn-Based Ethanol p. 101
Sugar Cane-Based Ethanol p. 104
Impacts of Ethanol Production p. 106
Cellulosic Ethanol, "A Huge New Source of Energy" p. 107
Biofuels, An Inappropriate Solution p. 113
Electricity From Wind p. 116
Evolution of Wind Power p. 118
Estimated Potential of Wind Power p. 119
Key Constraints on Wind Power p. 121
Realizing the Potential of Wind Power p. 130
The Pace of Energy Transitions p. 133
Present Realities p. 134
Past Transitions p. 136
Why Energy Transitions Are Gradual p. 140
The Repowering Challenge p. 141
False Analogy p. 143
Conclusion: Lessons and Policy Implications p. 150
Electric Vehicles p. 150
Nuclear Power p. 152
Soft-Energy Conversions p. 155
Peak Oil p. 156
Carbon Sequestration p. 157
Crop-Based Ethanol p. 158
Wind-Powered Electricity Generation p. 159
Energy Transitions p. 160
A Quick Summation p. 162
Notes p. 165
References p. 177
Index p. 197
About the Author p. 213
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