Preface p. ix
Acknowledgments p. xiii
What is a Predictable Surprise? A Preview p. 1
Prototypes of Predictable Surprises p. 13
September 11: The Costs of Ignoring a Predictable Surprise p. 15
The Collapse of Enron and the Failure of Auditor Independence p. 43
Why Don't We Act on What We Know? p. 69
Cognitive Roots: The Role of Human Biases p. 71
Organizational Roots: The Role of Institutional Failures p. 95
Political Roots: The Role of Special-Interest Groups p. 121
Preventing Predictable Surprises p. 153
Recognition: Identifying Emerging Threats Earlier p. 157
Prioritization: Focusing on the Right Problems p. 179
Mobilization: Building Support for Preventative Action p. 203
Future Predictable Surprises p. 225
General Accounting Office Reports Warning of Aviation Security Weaknesses, 1994-2001 p. 259
Ten Elements of an Effective Crisis-Response Plan p. 263
Notes p. 267
Further Reading p. 299
Index p. 301
About the Authors p. 323