简介
In Chance, celebrated mathematician Amir D. Aczel turns his sights on probability theory—the branch of mathematics that measures the likelihood of a random event. He explains probability in clear, layman's terms, and shows its practical applications. What is commonly called luck has mathematical roots and in Chance, you'll learn to increase your odds of success in everything from true love to the stock market. For thousands of years, the twin forces of chance and mischance have beguiled humanity like none other. Why does fortune smile on some people, and smirk on others? What is luck, and why does it so often visit the undeserving? How can we predict the random events happening around us? Even better, how can we manipulate them? In this delightful and lucid voyage through the realm of the random, Dr. Aczel once again makes higher mathematics intelligible to us.
目录
Table Of Contents:
Introduction vii
What Is Probability? 1(4)
Measuring the Probability 5(4)
The Law of Unions 9(2)
Independence of Events 11(6)
Subjective Probability 17(8)
The Complement of an Event, and the Union of Independent Events 25(16)
Random Walks and the Gambler's Ruin 41(12)
What Is Randomness? 53(6)
Pascal's Triangle 59(4)
The Inspection Paradox 63(6)
The Birthday Problem 69(8)
Coincidences 77(8)
How to Succeed in Love (Find the Best Apartment, or Adopt the Best Puppy) 85(4)
How to Make Decisions Under Uncertainty 89(4)
Game Strategies 93(2)
Bayes's Theorem 95(10)
The Normal Curve 105(8)
Understanding the Presidential Election (and Other) Polls 113(6)
Conclusion 119(2)
A Few Problems 121(6)
Answers 127(4)
Notes 131(2)
Appendix 133
Brad Johnson
Introduction vii
What Is Probability? 1(4)
Measuring the Probability 5(4)
The Law of Unions 9(2)
Independence of Events 11(6)
Subjective Probability 17(8)
The Complement of an Event, and the Union of Independent Events 25(16)
Random Walks and the Gambler's Ruin 41(12)
What Is Randomness? 53(6)
Pascal's Triangle 59(4)
The Inspection Paradox 63(6)
The Birthday Problem 69(8)
Coincidences 77(8)
How to Succeed in Love (Find the Best Apartment, or Adopt the Best Puppy) 85(4)
How to Make Decisions Under Uncertainty 89(4)
Game Strategies 93(2)
Bayes's Theorem 95(10)
The Normal Curve 105(8)
Understanding the Presidential Election (and Other) Polls 113(6)
Conclusion 119(2)
A Few Problems 121(6)
Answers 127(4)
Notes 131(2)
Appendix 133
Brad Johnson
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