Contents 7
Preface 9
Chapter 1: The Evergreen Portfolio 13
The Long Cycle 14
Our Future 15
Asset Placement 17
Reality 24
What Can We Do? 25
Back to Reality 26
The Investment Plan 26
Chapter 2: How Did We Get into This Mess? And What Is the Best Way Out? 29
Question 1: How Did We Get into This Mess? 30
Question 2: Where Are We Now in the Recovery Cycle? 33
Question 3: What Is Your Favorite Solution to This Problem? 36
Question 4: What Is Your Long -Term Outlook for the Market? 38
Question 5: How Should We Invest in This Environment? 40
Chapter 3: Know the Signs of the Times 43
Adam Smith\u2019s Ideal Model 44
The Return of Depressing Keynesian Economics 44
The Big Three in Economics 44
Is the Global Economy Depression Proof or Accident Prone? 47
Is the Dollar Going to Collapse? 49
When the Rich Get Poorer, Look Out Below 51
Investment Strategy in Uncertain Times: Know the Signs of the Times 52
Ending On a Positive Note 53
Chapter 4: How Fed Policy Fuels Market Cycles 55
The Birth of the Modern Federal Financial System 55
The Five 17-Year Bull and Bear Markets since the Birth of the Fed 56
What Caused the Mega-Crash of 2008? Fed Panic, Credit Fantasies, and \u201cGuns and Butter II\u201d 64
Housing: America\u2019s Most Speculative Asset Class? 66
Conclusion: The Next Move Is Up to the Fed, Congress, and Voters (Like You and Me) 68
Chapter 5: Investing and Hedging Strategies for a Topsy-Turvy Financial World 69
Wall Street \u201cMyths\u201d 72
\u201cInvestment Eras\u201d Are Important Influences on Market Behavior 79
Flexible Portfolio Method versus Modern Portfolio Theory 91
Strategic Asset Allocations for the Times\u2014Prepare for Boom, Bust, or Muddling Through 94
Equity Income Investing\u2014the Preferred Core Holding 97
Hedging Tactics for Portfolio Risk Management 105
Simple or Complex Technical Analysis\u2014Your Choice 110
America\u2019s New Role in the Shrinking World 114
Chapter 6: Conquer the Crash, Condensed 123
A Myth Exposed 123
Economic Deterioration During the Final Decade of Wave V 125
What Are the Signs of a Topping Stock Market? 126
Historically Optimistic Psychology 130
When Does Deflation Occur? 133
Making Preparations and Taking Action 138
Chapter 7: The Gone Fishin\u2019 Portfolio 141
The Unvarnished Truth About Your Money 143
The Road to Financial Freedom 146
Your Single Most Important Investment Decision 148
The Gone Fishin\u2019 Portfolio Unveiled 153
The Proof Is In the Pudding 161
Chapter 8: How You Can Profit from Chaostan 167
Geopolitical Threats (from the April 2009 Early Warning Report) 168
East Europe\u2014the Baltics (from the May 2009 Early Warning Report) 173
Piracy (from the February 1998 Early Warning Report) 174
Persian Gulf (from the January 2007 Early Warning Report) 175
The Coming War with China (from the June 2000 Early Warning Report) 176
If You are a Speculator (from the April 2009 Early Warning Report) 181
Closing Thoughts 183
Chapter 9: The New Global Investing Strategy 185
American Superiority 186
Reasons to Internationalize 188
The Global Approach 188
Where to Find Bargains 190
The Balance of Power Shifts East and South 192
The Decline in the Dollar 193
Growth from Emerging Countries 195
Ways to Invest Internationally 196
Chapter 10: High-Yield Investing in the Shadow of the Big W 199
Recovery or Relapse 201
In the Sectors 204
Chapter 11: The Case for Growth 209
The Growth Shift 212
The End of Easy Oil 216
An End to Easy Oil 222
Chapter 12: Gold Facts 229
Gold Facts 230
Mining and Production 231
Analysis for Gold, Associated Scams, and Quality Control 237
Gold as Money and a Measure of Wealth 238
Outlook for the Gold Mining Industry 241
Chapter 13: The Rare Coin Market 243
How to Participate in the Rare Coin Market 244
Specific Coin Recommendations 245
What Not to Buy 246
Two Final Very Important Tips 247
Chapter 14: Other Currencies versus the Dollar 249
Currency Investing: Adding an Asset Class with Global Clout 251
Diversification 262
How to View Currencies 263
Which Currencies Should We Consider for the Long Run Now? 264
The Future of Currencies 265
Chapter 15: The 2010 Estate Tax Law: Here to Stay or Going Away? 267
Asset Titling 269
Formula Clauses in Wills 270
Gifting 270
Summary 273
Epilogue: The Truth about Deficits, Debts, Deleveraging, Deflation, and Derivatives 275
The Growing Government Deficit Dilemma 275
\u201cGuaranteed Lifetime Security\u201d Undermines Most State Budgets 277
Boomers Building Castles of Debt 278
Deleveraging Leads to Asset Price Deflation 279
Derivatives: Weapons of Mass Financial Destruction 280
The Next Move: A Return to \u201cStagflation\u201d 281
A New Investment Strategy for New Times: The Evergreen Portfolio 282
About the Authors 287
About the Contributors 289
Index 295